1. There's a lot of buzz on the astronomical jump in cases from Hubei on Wednesday -- 14,840 new confirmed cases, almost 10 x compared to a day earlier. New deaths rose to 242, more than double fr day b4. The govt has changed the diagnostic criteria used to confirm cases. More ..
2. Effectively, this means the govt is giving doctors greater discretion to clinically diagnose patients. Previously, they could only confirm cases with the nucleic acid test kits. But a govt expert said recently these were only 30-40 percent accurate.
3. More crucially, we were interviewing patients, who were showing all the symptoms of the new coronavirus, who said they were tested four to five times before they got a positive result. Li Wenliang, the whistleblower doctor, was one of them.
4. Chinese health experts say this is why there's a change: they now realize that there's a group of patients who only test positive very late with the nucleic acid testing. Because of how transmissible the disease is, they want to include these people as confirmed cases.
5. The point is to isolate these patients quickly and treat them. Doctors are now clinically diagnosing these people with CT scans. The advantage of these scans are they are immediate. Previously, patients had to wait at least two days for their results.
6. Samples had to be transported for hours to the province's relatively few labs. The nucleic acid tests are also dependent on the people sampling these patients. There's room for error. But the disadvantage of using CT scans is that they might not catch people w mild symptoms.
7. I wrote about all these issues last week: As Deaths Mount, China Tries to Speed Up Coronavirus Testing nyti.ms/38dFtzZ
8. Pls read this story by my colleague, Roni Caryn Rabin. Problem with new numbers for experts now is comparisons and understanding the extent of the virus's spread. nytimes.com/2020/02/12/hea…
