I feel like, so far, I've had a pretty good read on the coronavirus so let me make some predictions (please disagree where applicable!):
1. The disease is too infectious to be contained and it is too late. The British guy from Singapore shows that clearly.
1. The disease is too infectious to be contained and it is too late. The British guy from Singapore shows that clearly.
2. If a kid died of coronavirus we would've heard about it already. There are studies out there saying it that mostly kills old people. The youngest person I've heard die was hero Dr. Li Wenliang and the locals wanted that guy to die so I wouldn't take much from it 
3. The virus is going to come in waves in every country. It'll looked under control, then some clown will go to a new city and restart the epidemic. Just like Spanish flu. You can't ban travelers from every single country and that's basically what needs to be done at this point.
4. The virus will go at very different speeds in different countries and the damage it does will be different. Countries like Indonesia won't have the money or expertise to keep their people alive, but they also don't have as many old people die.
5. They also won't be able to lock down the country has so it'll spread like wildfire. India, Indonesia, Cambodia, all of Africa, parts of South America are like this. The other big determinant of speed of transmission will be density. Dense countries get to full infection faster
6. We're going to be hearing about the coronavirus for a long time. It takes time for one person to infect others and then once infections in an area or country reach critical mass the area will be shut down which will slow transmission, but likely not enough to contain it.
7. In a weird way, I could see chickenpox-like parties for kids. People are going to go crazy over the next year as this plays out. People may just try to get it because they're so sick of being stuck inside.
8. No one wants to see people die, so if you're government and I'm right that the virus at this point can't be contained, it's all about delaying it until a vaccine can be developed and then reach big production.
9. Coronavirus will massively shift people towards working at home. All but essential services and package delivery will switch to work at home. This may create resentment amongst those who are forced to take risks for those get to stay at home. It aligns with class-conflict.
10. Okay I'm spent. My main takeaway is, notwithstanding the specter of death of ourselves and relatives, we are going to get sooooo sick of hearing about this soon. It's a unique time in history. We have a pandemic, but we can slow it down because of communications technology.
Let's look at how I could be wrong:
A. Fast vaccine creation (doubt it)
B. A cocktail of current drugs work
C. Asian people are materially more susceptible (the bioweapon to make China's population younger thesis)
A. Fast vaccine creation (doubt it)
B. A cocktail of current drugs work
C. Asian people are materially more susceptible (the bioweapon to make China's population younger thesis)
D. I'm extrapolating from super spreaders. The British guy open-mouth coughed everywhere and hugged everyone. Seems unlikely based on Singapore tracing
E. China has no idea how to treat people. Well, if that's true, how are Indonesia and India going to handle this?
E. China has no idea how to treat people. Well, if that's true, how are Indonesia and India going to handle this?
Another prediction:
Every country in this world has an unspoken disdain for China. It’s often not fair and the United States has a history of big fuckups (assuming not deliberate), but China’s conduct in many areas is obnoxious. Look at WANG Yi’s comments for example.
Every country in this world has an unspoken disdain for China. It’s often not fair and the United States has a history of big fuckups (assuming not deliberate), but China’s conduct in many areas is obnoxious. Look at WANG Yi’s comments for example.
If it turns out they covered this up and fucked the world in the process we are going to see really big anti-China sentiment. It’s the straw that breaks the camels back.
Could also see a reaction to Chinese people not dissimilar to Arab Muslims post 9/11. Hopefully not.
Could also see a reaction to Chinese people not dissimilar to Arab Muslims post 9/11. Hopefully not.
If #COVID19 is as infectious and as hearty as it looks (why are there no infections in Thailand?), here's how it will play out:
We will have rotating outbreaks over the next 1-2 years until we get herd immunity. New York with get the bug. New York will get quarantined.
We will have rotating outbreaks over the next 1-2 years until we get herd immunity. New York with get the bug. New York will get quarantined.
Because containment is impossible, Philadelphia will get the bug, Philadelphia will get quarantined (no mass gatherings, telecommuting, etc.), and then, because total containment is impossible, New York will get reinfected, New York will be requarantined etc.
The name of the game is delay as much as we can because:
1. The virus is exponential and hospital beds, masks, pills, doctors, nurses etc. are not
2. We need to buy time until we can get a vaccine
3. We can't do full quarantine everywhere all-the-time to kill the bug.
1. The virus is exponential and hospital beds, masks, pills, doctors, nurses etc. are not
2. We need to buy time until we can get a vaccine
3. We can't do full quarantine everywhere all-the-time to kill the bug.
3 is politically impossible, practically impossible, and oh yeah, society would shut down and cease to function.
Going to be a fun 1-2 years!
Going to be a fun 1-2 years!
Some would argue that it might be better to just let the virus do its thing, but that would result in a total overwhelming of our limited capacity hospitals, which would increase the mortality rate unnecessarily.
I have a lot of fear and empathy for hospital workers right now:
I have a lot of fear and empathy for hospital workers right now:
They may have grueling hours, and worse, it looks like they seem to get the disease no matter what and it's particularly fatal for them. I wonder if there's some sort of relationship between the "amount" of exposure and severity not dissimilar to the idea of HIV+ vs. AIDS.
WHO has to call this thing a pandemic on Monday (though they might not because there are some financial implications) and, while I don't like to bet against mean reversion, people are going to freak out on Monday.
markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/pa…
markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/pa…
For management of #Covid19 I think there’s one critical number:
New infections per local hospital bed.
There’s a threshold below which our medical system does not collapse. We need to stay below it. When we approach it, we need to quarantine until new infections subside.
New infections per local hospital bed.
There’s a threshold below which our medical system does not collapse. We need to stay below it. When we approach it, we need to quarantine until new infections subside.
After infections subside, the area will get reinfected and the cycle will repeat. Unless the virus mutates to become worse, each success peak will be lower because more and more people will be locally immune.
I think this method is the best way to address limited health
I think this method is the best way to address limited health
Care capacity but also people’s’ desires to not be cooped up in their homes for a year. Quarantine. Return to normalcy. Quarantine. Return to normalcy.
Delay delay delay, until we have a vaccine.
You can’t just “accept this risk”. Too many people will die becaus everyone will
Delay delay delay, until we have a vaccine.
You can’t just “accept this risk”. Too many people will die becaus everyone will
Hit the hospital system at the same time, reducing overall care for covid but also every other ailment in the hospital.
Not so much a prediction as something I'd like to be true, but anyways:
#COVID19 will be America's second sputnik moment. We will be so embarrassed by our incompetence relative to China, that we will start reinvesting in science and industry once again!
#COVID19 will be America's second sputnik moment. We will be so embarrassed by our incompetence relative to China, that we will start reinvesting in science and industry once again!
@molson_hart Apologies for those who get to see this for nth time...had to throw it on my predictions thread.
You can believe that China has turned around a terrible situation, perhaps reaching a (temporary) steady-state, but the idea that China only had 33 cases on March 11th is comedy.
Too many people going in and out. Too many in general. Social distancing works, but not perfectly.
Too many people going in and out. Too many in general. Social distancing works, but not perfectly.
5 deaths in the philippines, infections in Singapore chugging along, lots of cases in Bahrain, Egypt, and KSA
"Warm-weather will fix it" hypothesis gets weaker and weaker.
"Warm-weather will fix it" hypothesis gets weaker and weaker.
Will humidity? Probably not.
Path to containment is social distancing. We've seen so in China and South Korea. Everything else is probably magical thinking.
Path to containment is social distancing. We've seen so in China and South Korea. Everything else is probably magical thinking.
I'm going on the world's most stable limb and saying that the UK will reverse this "herd immunity" strategy shortly.
7 deaths, 693 passengers, 1% death rate for (generally older) cruise ship passengers.
Could get higher. Updates are few and far between now.
Could get higher. Updates are few and far between now.
The original prediction! I overestimated the economic impact. China has done quite the job to restart their economy so far...
How do you save the cruise, airplane travel, and restaurant industries?
Yet another nail in the warm weather will stop #COVID19 coffin:
All clubs, restaurants, and bars in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam are to be closed starting today.
“44 cases” says Vietnam. Bullshit.
All clubs, restaurants, and bars in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam are to be closed starting today.
“44 cases” says Vietnam. Bullshit.
Only district 1. Forgot to write that. My bad. District 1 though is like HCMC's manhattan if there were a thing.
Mosques have air conditioning.
The sooner the United States realizes that it has fallen behind in science and technology, the sooner we can address that problem.
Feels like we're people on a beach confused by the receding waters that precede a big tsunami.
Feels like we're people on a beach confused by the receding waters that precede a big tsunami.
This is huge, but I don’t see how this is going to fix the huge economic problems we face.
China will ban (or heavily regulate) its wet markets, making West Africa bush meat markets the principal breeding ground for new viruses in this age of interconnection.
Despite our improved medical care and hygiene, higher populations and travel may mean more outbreaks.
Despite our improved medical care and hygiene, higher populations and travel may mean more outbreaks.
Serbia asks China, not the EU nor the US, for help.
Watershed moment or a friend in need is a friend indeed.
Mix of both, but I'm going to say the former. This is a major turning point.
Watershed moment or a friend in need is a friend indeed.
Mix of both, but I'm going to say the former. This is a major turning point.
As we adopt work from home procedures at companies all over the United States, I wonder:
Is that even a possibility for our government agencies?
Can the IRS and others work from home? Some of their websites operate 9-to-5, do they even have cloud storage of shared files?
Is that even a possibility for our government agencies?
Can the IRS and others work from home? Some of their websites operate 9-to-5, do they even have cloud storage of shared files?
The Chinese infection statistics are fake. It doesn't mean they haven't contained the virus, but the idea that there isn't a single new infection in China, amongst 1.4 billion people and countless foreigner travelers, not even a false positive, is a joke.
Very hard to believe they have 0 infections when there are still this many flights going on in and around China with ~20% of people showing no symptoms at all.
Apparently, soon we’ll be sending all citizens a check to compensate for #Covid19.
I worry that we’ll look back on this as the moment that we destroyed our republic.
Fiat money, cutting checks to all citizens, and democracy, together, are a dangerous combination.
I worry that we’ll look back on this as the moment that we destroyed our republic.
Fiat money, cutting checks to all citizens, and democracy, together, are a dangerous combination.
My old barber worked in a "salon suites" - basically wework for barbers. It's closing because of the virus, so he's texted everyone saying that he's setting up in his apartment.
I dig the entrepreneurial spirit, but this shows you how hard containment will be.
I dig the entrepreneurial spirit, but this shows you how hard containment will be.
After talking to a (young) buddy of mine who probably had #COVID19 (all symptoms, no covid test, but flu etc. all negative), it's worth saying that even if you survive, you don't want it:
- we still don't know if it causes permanent damage
- it will immobilize you for a while
- we still don't know if it causes permanent damage
- it will immobilize you for a while
#COVID19 will hurt credibility of the American media.
- "it's just the flu"
- "it's just a bad flu"
- "masks don't work"
- And now: "your money is safest in a bank, don't withdraw it!"
I trust some journalists, but the industry is generally technically-illiterate and dishonest.
- "it's just the flu"
- "it's just a bad flu"
- "masks don't work"
- And now: "your money is safest in a bank, don't withdraw it!"
I trust some journalists, but the industry is generally technically-illiterate and dishonest.
Japan is a consummately modern country with a fantastic reputation, but their coronavirus positive test data is bullshit, just like China's. Culture matters in how you address a problem like this. So does the Olympics...
japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/2…
japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/2…
Great thread on why cases in Japan are low compared to surrounding countries
I'll re-up this thread since we just had our first coronavirus prison-break in the USA (yakima, WA).
I don't believe Wuhan's numbers, but NYC is increasingly headed towards a Wuhan-like situation.
I don't believe Wuhan's numbers, but NYC is increasingly headed towards a Wuhan-like situation.
This virus is showing clearly how much rot pervades not only our government, but our entire economy.
It's pathetic and it better be a fucking wake-up call.
It's pathetic and it better be a fucking wake-up call.
I continue to be very perplexed by Japan's numbers. Can't contact trace over 1,000 infections. According to people I know, it's hard to get masks in Japan as well. I guess Taiwan, Japan, and Singapore are showing us that moderate social distancing after containment works.
Who will be the "Fabulous Fab" of the Great Pandemic of 2020? The insignificant scapegoat we blame for government mismanagement of this crisis, resulting in huge numbers of dead? The public demands a scapegoat.
I literally called the top on feb 12 aka blind squirrel finds nut.
This rise in the markets is crazy. IMHO, bull trap. Big business has not yet started to fail and is likely to. High unemployment. Stimulus won't work well. We are far from the bottom.
This rise in the markets is crazy. IMHO, bull trap. Big business has not yet started to fail and is likely to. High unemployment. Stimulus won't work well. We are far from the bottom.
Very not good. Virus may be coming back in China. Ugh.
Unless the virus mutates to become more deadly, #COVID19 will never be as bad in in the United States as it is in NYC right now.
- dense
- public transport
- many places of worship
- cold (good climate for transmission)
- dense
- public transport
- many places of worship
- cold (good climate for transmission)
Strong supporting evidence that the Chinese numbers are fake (duh).
Increasing evidence that the virus is ramping up again in China after loosening of restricts. Going to be a very long year folks.
Increasing evidence that the virus is ramping up again in China after loosening of restricts. Going to be a very long year folks.
I'm generally of the opinion that the economic stimulus is not going to work as well as people are hoping. Basically, the idea is: no amount of money or gift cards, whatever, will create the impulse to buy a cruise ticket or go to a restaurant.
It's important to know that things like this happen. 1945-2020 was an unusually good period in the West. Almost no hardship or big disasters. How much stimulus do we pump into the system when we don't get a summer? en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_With…
If this is true, NYC is going to get wiped out by this bug.
50% positive rate? Must be a ton of undiagnosed cases.
50% positive rate? Must be a ton of undiagnosed cases.
I'm pretty blown away right now. I see videos of people on subways in NYC and that city is not taking nearly the precautions they need to. NYC might, real talk, be worse than Wuhan soon.
We spent about $6,000 on a booth at New York Toy Fair on Feb 22-25. I cancelled our attendance on Feb 16, disappointing and perplexing my employees, business contacts, etc.
It's nothing compare to what HCW face, but it wasn't an easy decision at the time. Looks great now.
It's nothing compare to what HCW face, but it wasn't an easy decision at the time. Looks great now.
Assuming the virus does not cause recurring infection or mutate regularly like the flu, a country which reaches herd immunity first has a huge advantage in war. Medical supply chain is another wartime advantage. Coronavirus will be a catalyst for invasion or revolution somewhere.
After this crisis passes we will at least pay lip service to revamping our medical supply chain. We'll probably do something very incompetently. But as a nation we won't think generally about the next risk. What are the other existential threats to humanity that we are ignoring?
- Asteroid
- Solar volatility
- Nuclear war
- Nuclear terrorism
- Bioweapons
- Volcanic winter
- Supervolcanos (i.e. Yellowstone)
- China's rare-earth near-monopoly
- Climate change
- Hyperinflation
- Prion pandemics
- AI
- Aliens
- Cosmic rays
- Solar volatility
- Nuclear war
- Nuclear terrorism
- Bioweapons
- Volcanic winter
- Supervolcanos (i.e. Yellowstone)
- China's rare-earth near-monopoly
- Climate change
- Hyperinflation
- Prion pandemics
- AI
- Aliens
- Cosmic rays
When you list out all the existential threats to humanity, our Netflix-driven "live life for now" modern ethos seems comical.
The most powerful economic nation really needs to start thinking about the future.
The most powerful economic nation really needs to start thinking about the future.
It’s not average age that matters. It’s the percent of population over 60 that will really determines death rates in a state. Florida is in trouble.
Not locking down your country in the face of the coronavirus so that you can keep your economy going is like shooting the moon in hearts when you've never played hearts before.
h/t @spwells for the article
straitstimes.com/world/americas…
h/t @spwells for the article
straitstimes.com/world/americas…
Simple 3 Step Strategy to Stop the Coronavirus in the United States
medium.com/@molson_hart/w…
medium.com/@molson_hart/w…
I am deeply worried about this. This could be a major major major problem for the United States.
You can call this arrogance, stupidity, whatever. I don't care.
I honestly think I could fix this virus in the United States better than almost anyone else and I would do it too.
I get how this thing moves and the supply chain and I'm not afraid to take unpopular decisions.
I honestly think I could fix this virus in the United States better than almost anyone else and I would do it too.
I get how this thing moves and the supply chain and I'm not afraid to take unpopular decisions.
