1/ Now that Big T is on the docket for a fresh "unneeded" capital raise because two weeks ago they were flush with cash and thought Q1 wouldn't be an epic disaster, let's discuss the capital markets process and flipping.
2/ The May 2019 deal struggled to get done. Bankers will always say the book was "in good shape" or "oversusbscribed 2x" but that is because it is their job to lie on behalf of the company. You just need to see how it traded post-deal as your proof that it was poorly placed. 
3/ Here's the chart after the May 3 deal at $243. Traded up for a week and then faded as the flippers flipped. What do I mean? In the cap mkts process, when bankers are up against it and the book is in poor shape, the bankers cave and ask salespeople to find anyone.
4/ Salespeople call their best accounts, open the kimono, and tell these accounts, "Go ahead and flip it after, but I need a solid. We'll protect you on the next hot one." And the flippers step up. They wait a week and then start selling, but always away from the underwriter.
5/ Which is precisely what happened last May. I suspect a $2bil order placed mostly with retail tonight will have the same effect, and salespeople will be highly incentivized to place this. Tonight's pricing is also before the 13F's come out. Hmmm. I wonder why?
Not directly related but some have asked, here is the dealer activity since 1/1/2020. SUSQ here is usually the number 6-8 trader in this name. That's normal. And so is the spread between broker volume and real volume.
