Thread by @pmdfoster

So @BorisJohnson intends to "rip up" part of the #Brexit deal now he has new electoral mandate - as my colleague @gordonrayner reports here. What's going on? Does EU care? Does it matter? 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…

@BorisJohnson @gordonrayner So the first obvious thing is to ask what exactly is being ripped up? Is it just the 'non-binding' Political Declaration, or is it elements of the Withdrawal Agreement, which is a signed/ratified international treaty now. There's big difference, tho UK is tilting at both. /3

First the Political Declaration - recall that when @BorisJohnson ditched @theresa_may "all-UK customs union" the admission that a trade deal would be accompanied by special EU demands was shifted from the binding treaty to the non-binding statement of intent. /4

@BorisJohnson @theresa_may Johnson signed that at a time when he had no majority and was still looking to finesse the deal through Parliament.

Well, now he has a majority, he wants to disown those constraints. That upsets the EU, but doesn't really change their position as their mandate shows. /5

@BorisJohnson @theresa_may And as @RaoulRuparel @nick_gutteridge and others have pointed out the EU has resiled on some of its own promises - to do a financial services equivalence finding by June 2020, data adequacy by end of year. Now dropped. But the fishing deal demand (by June 2020) is in. /6

@BorisJohnson @theresa_may @RaoulRuparel @nick_gutteridge So, "fair's fair". The EU is 'weaponising' those decisions - like it is doing to Switzerland at the moment - withholding decisions it knows it *could* grant until it gets what it wants.

This is why Johnson put a marker down in his Feb 3 statement /7

parliament.uk/business/publi…

@BorisJohnson @theresa_may @RaoulRuparel @nick_gutteridge So the EU is 'cherry-picking' the Political Declaration, BUT since that document also serves as what @DavidHenigUK says is the nearest thing to a trade deal scoping document, ripping up its very foundation is not exactly a great start. /8

@BorisJohnson @theresa_may @RaoulRuparel @nick_gutteridge @DavidHenigUK It also sends some dangerous soft signals about the UK to other potential partners and, as @davidallengreen explores here, 'non-binding' doesn't mean you can ignore it completely. There is an issue of trust /9

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1232934339031293952

@BorisJohnson @theresa_may @RaoulRuparel @nick_gutteridge @DavidHenigUK @davidallengreen But what about the binding Withdrawal Agreement and where the UK seems to be nibbling pretty hard at the obligations that it signed up to. That's where things get much trickier. /10

@BorisJohnson @theresa_may @RaoulRuparel @nick_gutteridge @DavidHenigUK @davidallengreen One example I reported earlier this year was on the apparent undermining of the status Independent Monitoring Authority for EU citizens' rights appeals....that was pretty gratuitous. Upset both EU Parliament and Commission. /11

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…

@BorisJohnson @theresa_may @RaoulRuparel @nick_gutteridge @DavidHenigUK @davidallengreen And now, more fundamentally, the UK is starting to quibble on the implementation of the Irish Protocol - the 'frontstop' that puts a customs border in the Irish Sea.

As me, @tconnellyRTE @ShippersUnbound and others have reported, London is playing hard on this. /12

@BorisJohnson @theresa_may @RaoulRuparel @nick_gutteridge @DavidHenigUK @davidallengreen @tconnellyRTE @ShippersUnbound This has deeply rattled the EU side - partly because officials are aware that, legally speaking, there isn't A LOT that the EU can do about it, if the UK doesn't build the infrastructure needed to run that customs border. /13

@BorisJohnson @theresa_may @RaoulRuparel @nick_gutteridge @DavidHenigUK @davidallengreen @tconnellyRTE @ShippersUnbound Recall that the Protocol leaves ALL Northern Ireland goods subject to EU customs rules, VAT rules and State Aid rules - and that means all require checks/declarations, regardless of later decision on which might be exempt from tariffs. The UK is foot-dragging on this. Why? /14

@BorisJohnson @theresa_may @RaoulRuparel @nick_gutteridge @DavidHenigUK @davidallengreen @tconnellyRTE @ShippersUnbound First reason, per well-informed source, is that it wants to try to play the Protocol back into the negotiation - so hold back on it UNTIL the EU shows movement on key areas. (See constructiveness test quote from Johnson above). This is driving EU NUTS! /15

@BorisJohnson @theresa_may @RaoulRuparel @nick_gutteridge @DavidHenigUK @davidallengreen @tconnellyRTE @ShippersUnbound Hence @MichelBarnier banging his podium in frustration - because the WHOLE POINT of the Withdrawal Agreement was to put the Irish question in a box, and nail down the lid. Now the Brits are prying it open again. And brazenly moving goal posts. /16

@BorisJohnson @theresa_may @RaoulRuparel @nick_gutteridge @DavidHenigUK @davidallengreen @tconnellyRTE @ShippersUnbound @MichelBarnier Just LOOK at the UK Govt's own impact assessment from Oct 21 2019 on the Irish Protocol. Worth reading. Very clear there must be declarations/controls etc. /17

h/t @BastidonPauline

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

Which brings you to the second issue, beyond the UK brinkmanship on implementing the Protocol - the deal itself is a *nightmare*. Just look at those costs "£15 to £56" per declaration...that's what's keeping @MichaelAodhan and others awake at night. That's really not good. /18

@MichaelAodhan Recall that leaked Treasury slide pack on the "disruptive" impact of this border on prices, jobs etc in NI.

This is both an economic but also deeply emotive subject. @AnnaJerzewska
is right physical checks are not 'all' - but they are symbolic /19

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1202960167354216454?s=20

@MichaelAodhan @AnnaJerzewska Just look at the exposure of NI small and micro business to inputs from GB - some of this can be mitigated with subsidies/cash etc. but a full-fat border risks permanent disadvantage for an already disadvantaged part of UK./20

@MichaelAodhan @AnnaJerzewska So this isnt just political brinkmanship - it's about UK govt trying to minimise (wriggle out of, as some in Brussels might see it) the commitments it signed up to as the price of a deal, a deal, recall that @theresa_may said "no British PM could sign". Well, this one did. /21

@MichaelAodhan @AnnaJerzewska @theresa_may Recall that the NI protocol deal is required, by law, whether or not there is a trade deal...though in that event its hard to see this UK govt really breaking its back to implement it in full. But that, again, would only poision the post 'no deal' talks that would still happen/22

@MichaelAodhan @AnnaJerzewska @theresa_may The government apparently feels that this kind of brinkmanship was effective last time - per @DmitryOpines thread y'day - and is repeating that playbook again, just as EU is repeating its own 'ticking clock' strategy. /23

@MichaelAodhan @AnnaJerzewska @theresa_may @DmitryOpines We'll see what works come December 31, but with the Irish Protocol, on so many levels, we're really are playing with fire.

Sorry long thread /24ENDS.