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FOR THE FIRST TIME

Australia publishes quarterly consumption-based emissions:

Production emissions are flat (orange). Since exports are growing (& imports declining), consumption-based emissions are declining (2.3% down)...

Is this a problem?

1/
industry.gov.au/data-and-publi…
"When you take out our exports, take out our farming exports for instance as well as our LNG exports, domestic emissions are dropping by over 2 per cent" @AngusTaylorMP

Consumption = Production - exports (blue) + imports (blue)

2/
abc.net.au/news/2020-02-2…
All those people calling for consumption-based emissions (HT @KevinClimate), this is the risk you take with fossil fuel exporters...

Australia will become a leader in reducing consumption-based emissions, because it exports fossil fuels!

3/
Alternative accounting systems are useful, but mainly as a complement to existing systems & not as a replacement (pnas.org/content/108/45…)

Supply-side policies may also lead to pervasive incentives. Be careful when promoting alternative systems!

4/4
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More from @Peters_Glen see all

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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
THREAD on coronavirus & CO₂ emissions

I get asked many times a day what the coronavirus means for global CO₂ emissions...

Short-answer: Its March, I don't know yet...

Long-answer: Emissions are probably going down...

theconversation.com/how-changes-br… Image
2. There is a very strong link between CO₂ emissions & economic activity. Historically, if the economy grows, then CO₂ emissions will grow (this will have to change to keep <2°C).

All else equal, if economic growth drops enough, it is expected CO₂ emissions would go down. Image
3. The OECD has dropped global GDP growth for 2020 from 3% (made in November 2019) to 2.4% (made in 2 March).

*If* the carbon efficiency of the economy improves on trend at 2.5%/yr, then CO₂ emissions would go down 0.3% in 2020. Image
Read 13 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
What will be the temperature increase in 2100 if emission pledges are implemented to 2030 & "with an extrapolation of implied effort beyond 2030"?

According to one scenario comparison: 2.3-3.2°C (median across IAMs).

THREAD

db1.ene.iiasa.ac.at/ADVANCEDB
2. It is not clear exactly how "with an extrapolation of implied effort beyond 2030" is implemented.

Depending on the IAM, GHG emissions either decline ~50% by 2100 or remain flat.
3. The carbon price to meet the outcomes varies considerably across IAM, but generally rises through to 2100 (and remains relatively low).
Read 8 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
What are the temperature outcomes from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) when including uncertainty in the climate system?

The figure shows the median with 5-95 percentiles. In 2100:
* SSP1-19: 1.3 (0.8-2.1)°C
* SSP2-45: 2.6 (1.7-4.1)°C
* SSP5-85: 5.3 (3.6-8.8)°C

1/
The #SR15 database included results for two reduced complexity models (MAGICC, FAIR).

FAIR has a much lower observationally constrained climate response, & considerably smaller uncertainty.

In 2100 for SSP1-19 (<1.5°C):
* FAIR: 1.1 (0.8-1.5)°C
* MAGICC: 1.3 (0.8-2.1)°C

2/
In 2100 for SSP1-26 (~66% below 2°C):
* FAIR: 1.4 (1.1-2)°C
* MAGICC: 1.7 (1.1-2.7)°C

Data is from the SR15 database, data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-expl…, but I plotted only selected SSP marker scenarios (used in CMIP6).

3/3
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#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
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- Best demographics
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The next 10 years could result in the below:
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#USA
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