THREAD on coronavirus & CO₂ emissions
I get asked many times a day what the coronavirus means for global CO₂ emissions...
Short-answer: Its March, I don't know yet...
Long-answer: Emissions are probably going down...
theconversation.com/how-changes-br…
I get asked many times a day what the coronavirus means for global CO₂ emissions...
Short-answer: Its March, I don't know yet...
Long-answer: Emissions are probably going down...
theconversation.com/how-changes-br…
2. There is a very strong link between CO₂ emissions & economic activity. Historically, if the economy grows, then CO₂ emissions will grow (this will have to change to keep <2°C).
All else equal, if economic growth drops enough, it is expected CO₂ emissions would go down.
All else equal, if economic growth drops enough, it is expected CO₂ emissions would go down.
3. The OECD has dropped global GDP growth for 2020 from 3% (made in November 2019) to 2.4% (made in 2 March).
*If* the carbon efficiency of the economy improves on trend at 2.5%/yr, then CO₂ emissions would go down 0.3% in 2020.
*If* the carbon efficiency of the economy improves on trend at 2.5%/yr, then CO₂ emissions would go down 0.3% in 2020.
4. In times of crisis, the carbon efficiency usually declines slower (see the global financial crisis in 2009). We may not get much help from carbon efficiency (→higher CO₂ emissions).
The worst case OECD scenario: 1.5% growth in GDP, leads to a 1.2% decline in CO₂ emissions.
The worst case OECD scenario: 1.5% growth in GDP, leads to a 1.2% decline in CO₂ emissions.
5. Nerd alert!!!
You may notice my numbers don't seem to add up, but differ by 0.3%? That is a leap year adjustment. Since 2020 has 366 days we should adjust growth rates (0.3% lower in 2020). Annoying, but important...
You may notice my numbers don't seem to add up, but differ by 0.3%? That is a leap year adjustment. Since 2020 has 366 days we should adjust growth rates (0.3% lower in 2020). Annoying, but important...
6. The key uncertainties with my simple approach:
* We have no idea how the economy will develop in 2020. Big hits from coronavirus offset by big government stimulus.
* Carbon efficiency may do weird things because of government stimulus...
It is still only March!
* We have no idea how the economy will develop in 2020. Big hits from coronavirus offset by big government stimulus.
* Carbon efficiency may do weird things because of government stimulus...
It is still only March!
7. We wrote a paper about the 2008 global financial crisis, finding that CO₂ emissions rebound rather quickly after financial crises.
We either lose a few years of growth or emissions rebound.
Structural changes get swamped (nuclear after oil crises)
rdcu.be/bOUaB
We either lose a few years of growth or emissions rebound.
Structural changes get swamped (nuclear after oil crises)
rdcu.be/bOUaB
8. It is hard to say what will happen with coronavirus.
My armchair observation: It seems like a slow burner. Countries could lockdown for months, then open up again, only to lockdown when the virus flares up again. I don't see this stopping in a few months 😟
My armchair observation: It seems like a slow burner. Countries could lockdown for months, then open up again, only to lockdown when the virus flares up again. I don't see this stopping in a few months 😟
9. On the plus:
* Could we figure out that home office works, reducing local commuting?
* Could we figure way to do big conferences remotely, reducing aviation? The IPCC will try soon (I will be a part)
* Could government stimulus be directed in climate beneficial areas?
* Could we figure out that home office works, reducing local commuting?
* Could we figure way to do big conferences remotely, reducing aviation? The IPCC will try soon (I will be a part)
* Could government stimulus be directed in climate beneficial areas?
10. For those of us in lockdown, I am not sure this will be a good test of the home office: 2 parents trying to work while home schooling is not that efficient...
Perhaps we find that remote conferences are not that great? (Don't try unless you are going to make it work).
Perhaps we find that remote conferences are not that great? (Don't try unless you are going to make it work).
11. Government stimulus is likely to go to the heavily effected service sectors (restaurants, tourism & travel for now). Not sure there will be an option to build more solar, or wind, or ?
If anything, government support might build more ventilators...
If anything, government support might build more ventilators...
12. As in previous crises, CO₂ emissions are likely to return.
We could be "lucky" in that we buy a little bit of time with low economic growth, allowing renewables to "catch up" with the annual addition in energy yes.
Perhaps 2019/2020 will be peak emissions?
We could be "lucky" in that we buy a little bit of time with low economic growth, allowing renewables to "catch up" with the annual addition in energy yes.
Perhaps 2019/2020 will be peak emissions?
