Dr. Liang: 25 experts. Spoke with officials, scientists, residents, medical workers. Our main goals: to understand 1) characteristics of epidemic 2) clinical symptoms incl. mild/middle/critical 3) prevention/control measures and effectiveness 4) suggestions for future research
5 major findings: 1) understanding of virus. Experts studied 104 strains from different places and found they were 99.9% similar in origin. So experts believe there is no significant mutation. Ave age 51. 80% of patients 30-65. In confirmed cases, 78% from Hubei as of Feb 22...
Host- not clear. But possibly an intermediate host. Research ongoing. Transmission. Respiratory droplets. In relatively closed rooms. Might be transmitted through aerosol. Family cluster quite common. Sichuan, Guangdong typical. 78.85% cases came from family clusters...
For close contacts, all locations tracked and observed them. So far 1-5% of close contacts are later confirmed. Because it is a new #coronavirus, no people are especially immune to it, so are universally/equally able to get infected. (!)..
In early stage, in Wuhan, all related to wet market. Later, as virus spread further, after Jan 30, the newly added cases related to the market declined. Daily new cases are going down...
Outside Wuhan/Hubei, early cases are mostly related to Wuhan/Hubei, in some places family clusters, community clusters are seen. Epidemics in these areas are different from Wuhan. In special locations, epidemics broke out, i.e. among hospital medical staff over 3000. But whether
...origin from community or hospital is still TBD. Infected 3000 are mostly from Wuhan. It’s possible in peak time, our staff had insufficient understanding of the virus, and lack of materials, procedures, and lack of rest/long working hours. All are possible causes.
On severity: most patients are mild cases. 80% are mild. 13.8% severe. 6.1% critical. Death rate 3-4% nationally. Outside Wuhan: 0.7%. From symptoms to confirmed, lowered from 12 days in early Jan to 3 days now. For Wuhan, 5 to 15 days. Evidence diagnosis ability has improved...
Average recovery time: 2 weeks for mild cases from onset to recovered. 3-6 weeks for severe...
WHO’s Aylward: praises China and ambitious, aggressive approach. First old fashioned measures like hand-washing, wearing masks, keep distance then response moved to scientific, risk-oriented action. Turbo charged w/ modern tech. More efficient than could have imagined years ago.
How they made this response switch. From the tremendous will of Chinese people, workers, government officials. No question that China’s approach has definitely helped prevent the fast spreading epidemic...
Realizes there are challenges the counting method of the numbers. But looking at different sources, the decline in numbers is real. Much evidence to support that.
In Wuhan, hospital beds are more available. They can move more people in. This is a strong indicator. One researcher also said biggest challenge for developing an anti-viral trial is to find cases because of the drop in patients.
Showing graphs on outbreaks. Says hundreds of thousands of Chinese have benefited from China’s tremendous effort. China’s very aggressive measures have changed the curve of the epidemic.
Those are the good things but we also saw problems. We always learn lessons with every outbreak on response time, communication, protection for medical staff, action.
China wants to resume work, reopen schools. China wants to get back to normal. This should happen. But says this virus will probably be around “for months”. So the key will be to phase lifting of different measures. Should also bolster what they have now because cases could..
..rise again as China gets back to normal. Most important recommendation: the world needs the experience of China to cope with epidemic and the only country to turn around such a big outbreak.
In terms of travel and trade, any country taking measures outside WHO’s recommendation should reevaluate since risk from China is dropping. What China has to add is rising.
WHO on the global situation: the virus is new but its capable of causing great impact on public health, the economy, and society. It is not SARS, not the flu. If we don’t treat it as a virus with its own characteristics, we won’t be able to fight it.
Second finding for global impact, the fundamentals of Hubei, Guangdong, can be applied elsewhere. This is a dangerous virus and we have to work with experience we have. And this country has demonstrated its measures can work.
Third finding, global community is not ready with mindset or material to act in this same way. The Chinese adapt.
WHO: China was the first line of defense to prevent the spread of this virus. They feared they had the responsibility to protect the world from this. They locked down cities of 15mln people to prevent the spread...
As they dropped the force of infection, that has dropped spread without a doubt. Other countries should consider similar action to be a second line of defense to prevent spread to low income countries with lower ability to fight it.
WHO: On drug, there is one that may be effective- remdesivir. @megtirrell
WHO: We have put in recommendations for the public. This cannot work without the collective will of the population working towards it. That is what distinguishes this country— using old fashion public health measures and moving to modern response to fend off epidemic.
WHO on Italy: they are moving with aggressive measures. China has demonstrated this can work.
BBC Q to WHO: You touched about the problems. To what extent did cover-up and censorship worsen the ability to face the epidemic?
WHO: Our purpose was to find what works. Awareness is a common problem in many outbreaks. I don’t know about the factor you mentioned. We didn’t look at that factor. There were other factors we looked at as well...
The most important is speed. What worries me is have other countries learned lessons from China’s experience.
WHO: There is one other point. President Xi himself said mistakes were made. We need to address. There is a recognition that the human cost is unacceptable. We all have to look at our systems because none of them as fast enough.
Dr. Liang responding to BBC: For Wuhan, looking back, what could have been the best measure taken? The feeling is if we use traditional understanding of the flu and SARS, it wouldn’t work- using our knowledge about other diseases...
Dr. Liang continues to BBC: This virus is sneaky. We needed to fight while we learned, while we improved. This is what we lacked in the early stages.
CCTV to WHO: What is the top recommendation for China’s next step efforts?
WHO: The most important is not to be complacent. There are other places in the world where people are vulnerable. It will require rapid work. And sometimes when dealing with a virus, we become complacent. Hospital beds, vaccines. China is concerned and knows it faces this risk.
Singapore media: What is the situation in Wuhan? When can we expect a turning point when life will return to normal?
WHO: The turning point has occurred here (pointing to graph). Will they get to zero? Tricky. You’re looking at weeks to get it down.
WHO: the real thing to look at is the risk. The risk in Wuhan has gone way down. And that has completely changed. (Earlier said if we see newly confirmed cases dropping in the double digits in the next weeks, we will know this is getting better.)
Dr. Liang to Singapore media: the situation in Wuhan is still severe. We are in a critical moment whether we can win this war. Severe and critical cases/confirmed cases, if they continue to drop, that would be good news..
Dr. Liang continues to Singapore media: But we are still seeing 400+ new confirmed cases and 400-500 new suspected cases. We have a basic judgment: the outbreak in the early stage has been contained.
Sky News: you mentioned skepticism with the numbers. Why weren’t WHO officials allowed in earlier?
