1/ US equity index futures are experiencing a significant drop off pointing to likely declines at Monday’s open as the number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases outside of China surges. I decided to take a look at some COVID-19 data 
2/ Five countries, other than China, currently have more than 50 reported cases :
- South Korea (833)
- Italy (157)
- Japan (147)
- Singapore (89)
- Hong Kong (74).
- South Korea (833)
- Italy (157)
- Japan (147)
- Singapore (89)
- Hong Kong (74).
3/ Hubei province, however, still has, by far, the highest number of reported cases. Out of nearly 80,000 reported cases, 80.9% came from Hubei. More than 95% of all deaths associated with COVID-19 also come from Hubei.
4/ About 51,900 of all cases are still open while 27.8k have been closed. More than a fifth of all active cases are in serious or critical condition while the rest is only showing mild symptoms. More than 9% of all closed cases have ended in the death of the patient.
5/ According to a recent study by Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the death rate significantly increases with higher age. About 80% of those who died were over the age of 60.
6/ Moreover, 75% of patients that died had pre-existing health conditions such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, respiratory issues, and others. Less than 1% of patients that died had no pre-existing conditions, according to China’s National Health Commission (NHC).
7/ It’s important to note that these figures were released by institutions in China and they could be either understated or incorrect. Foreign Policy reported on February 12th that the number of deaths appears to be severely understated.
8/ Bloomberg reported this morning that “almost all of Italy’s cases are linked to a 38-year-old man who sought treatment at a hospital in the Lombardy region.” COVID-19 has been spreading much faster than SARS or Swine Flu.
9/ To get the most accurate picture, though, without having to think about whether China has been underestimating the figures or not, we have to look at the cases outside of China. The number of cases outside of China has been increasing exponentially in the last four days.
10/ While it appears that COVID-19 is not too dangerous for adults below 60 years of age or for people with no pre-existing conditions, it’s now also clear that its effects will cause economic damage as more cities get quarantined. Companies will start missing forecasts
