Thread by @tanvi_madan

THREAD after #TrumpIndiaVisit on #US-#India relations, and the importance of power, perceptions, and constituencies 1/

Go back a decade. Till about 2010-11, there were v positive perceptions of India in DC
- economy beating expectations
- defense rels incl deals progressing (C-130, P-8, C-17)
- diplo ties ↑ (bilat Asia dialogue, US-I-Japan trilat, Quad)
- PM Manmohan Singh respected globally 2/

Then, over next few yrs, perceptions of India changed
- econ growth flagging
- India seen as more reluctant on defense & diplo side
- Iran differences
- Corruption scandals  
- PM Singh earlier seen as doer now seen as disappointment 3/

That led to a stalling of US-India rels cuz various constituencies who'd converged on "India is important" now questioned whether that was the case:
- strategic types
- econ types
- values types
Mood reflected in a 2012 DC event title "Is the US-India relationship oversold?" 4/

When PM Modi came to office with a majority govt in 2014 talking the language of hope & reform -- & showing willingness to work w/ US -- perceptions changed in DC & those constituencies for US-India relations were optimistic again 5/

But once again in DC questions are starting to emerge about whether the US investment in India is worthwhile -- among all 3 constituencies 6/

Economic constituency is split on India. Some betting on Indian potential; others are frustrated w/ lack of reform.

Now I'm hearing questions abt safety & stability in India -- something businesses weigh as they consider investing in or expanding in India 7/

Economic constituency in the US has also been worried about slowing of Indian economic growth -- & this is before any #COVID19-induced developments potentially making things worse 8/

Values constituency from democracy + human rights perspective is pessimistic cuz of Kashmir pol leaders' detentions & communications restrictions, plus CAA-NRC concerns. 9/

Values constituency from diaspora ties not as solid as you'd think. Generational & partisan divides are becoming visible 10/

Strategic constituency in US pleased w/ progress in defense & security coop w/ India, given their China concerns.

But some now questioning GoI priorities & if it'll have sufficient econ + mil capabilities, & diplo focus. 11/

Perception of India as contrasting w/ China also taking a hit, whether it's because of GoI seen as pressuring American cos. like PRC has (esp to favor its own), or because of some similar approaches like internet shutdowns 12/

DC folks will also make comparisons about China & India going after WSJ journalists within a week of each other (both perhaps not caring that US deputy NSA Matt Pottingeris a former WSJer) 13/

At the moment, India is depending on Trump's good mood & strategic leg of the 3-legged stool that is the US-India relationship, which has made progress 14/

But, as China's Xi & Japan's Abe have learnt, countries cannot depend on the afterglow of a positive Trump trip to sustain or insulate them from trade (& other) backlash 15/

Moreover, it means a lot of pressure on the strategic leg of US-India relations & will require Delhi to deliver on that front in ways it has been reluctant to do so in the past (often on the grounds that it might constrain India's strategic autonomy). 16/

The reason India's enjoyed (bipartisan) support in last 2 decades is that it's had multiple constituencies rooting for it in DC. What happened to perceptions of China over last few yrs should be instructive & give advocates of good US-India rels pause 17/

Views of China started to sour in US before the Trump admin. Why? Cuz various constituencies started questioning whether investment in China had been worthwhile -- whether rel was reciprocal or returns were really enough to justify looking the other way on some PRC moves 18/

India's own experience w/ US offers similar insight. In late 50s-early 60s, various constituencies (strat, econ, values) in US felt India/Nehru was all that & showered them w/ praise & aid.

Over 60s, constituencies got disillusioned w/ India cuz of strat & econ performance 19/

So folks can say perceptions don't matter (clearly Modi doesn't think that--& indeed worked hard to change US views of India/him when he became PM).

But if perceptions among all 3 constituencies take a hit -- combined w/ questions abt Indian power -- it will have an impact 20/

People might say, "so what?"

Well, there's a reason PM Modi rolled out the red carpet for Presidents Obama & Trump -- he understands the direct & indirect value of the US relationship for India. The rel has its flaws, but Delhi has found it to hv even more utility. 21/

I'm someone who thinks Trump trip to India made progress on some key issues - so no point yelling at me that I don't recognize +ve devp n.pr/2Tg1vwN - but u'd have to be an ostrich not to recognize there are questions even w/in admin & definitely on Hill (Ds & Rs) 22/

At the end of the day, it is healthier for the US-India relationship -- & helpful for those making the strategic case -- when there are multiple constituencies in the US pulling in the same direction w/r/t India...and not just one. 23/23