Thread by @tanvi_madan

THREAD So I know all the attention is on India-US relations thanks to #TrumpIndiaVisit, but there's something interesting playing out w/ India-China related to the tweet below that is worth following... 1/

https://twitter.com/JournoPranay/status/1230167450261442561

A few days ago, @MEAIndia announced that India would be sending one of its C17 military transport aircraft to China on February 20 w/ medical supplies & on its return it would evacuate additional Indians & possibly others from neighborhood. 2/

https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1229802788487561218?s=20

@MEAIndia Then there were some reports of delays & yesterday an official Indian source acknowledged them (which in & of itself is interesting cuz Delhi usually downplays differences): "China is deliberately delaying grant of clearance for the evacuation flight" 3/
livemint.com/news/india/cor…

@MEAIndia This was odd cuz PRC'd been seeking int'l support (& complaining abt those not helping). India was sending gloves, surgical masks, feeding pumps & defibrillators that PRC had requested. China FM spox: "There is no such thing as China delaying granting flight permission" 4/

@MEAIndia But India's asserting the delay is caused by China. Official: "Are they not interested in Indian aid provided as our token of support? Why are they creating roadblock in evacuating our nationals from Wuhan & putting them under hardship & mental agony?" 5/
thehindu.com/news/national/…

@MEAIndia So if China might be delaying the Indian flight, why might it be doing so?

I will caveat the next few tweets by saying we don't know & this is (hopefully informed) speculation, but here are some possibilities... 6/

@MEAIndia Sometimes the explanation is the simplest (& the least exciting) -- that the delay is the result of a bureaucratic snafu or some crossed connections.

That doesn't, however, seem to be true in this case 7/

@MEAIndia 1 possibility of delay: while China wants supplies, it doesn't like the visuals of India - sometimes dismissed as a less developed chaotic neighbor - of looking like a (efficient) patron 8/
ps: smuggling cheaper drugs from India was premise of hit C film reuters.com/article/us-chi…

@MEAIndia Another possibility for why China is delaying: the fact that it was scheduled to be an Indian military transport aircraft (that too equipment purchased from the US). So could be a result of related security or symbolism concerns on the part of PRC 9/

@MEAIndia A third possibility revolves around potential retaliation for Indian detention of a Chinese ship bound for Pakistan on Feb. 3 when it stopped in Kandla due to an intel tip-off of dual-use items on board (ship now released after some cargo was seized) 10/ hindustantimes.com/india-news/det…

@MEAIndia 4th possibility (& these cld be working in combo) or at least context: things hvnt been all hunky dory btwn India & China recently despite the Chennai connect(ing). & now China's probably not thrilled abt what's essentially GOI travel ban to/from China (w/o being called one) 11/

@MEAIndia What's also interesting is (at least via "sources") Indian govt's unusually decided to make reported Chinese delay public. To extent it's planned, cld be to ensure they don't get blamed at home for delay or cuz they're annoyed at PRC or want to embarrass/pressure it to act 12/

For those who haven't followed this, India has already evacuated over 600 citizens (& some Maldivians) from Wuhan and Hubei via civilian aircraft. 13/

China-India flight kerfuffle hasn't been resolved yet. Now the Chinese embassy in Delhi is complaining abt Indian travel restrictions (somehow there's been silence from PRC re Russia travel ban) & export restrictions on med products China wants. Says India shld be "rational" 14/

In reax to Chinese statement, Indian foreign ministry:
- export restrictions cuz of health emergency & it too has a billion ppl to take care of
- have made 1-time exception for PRC
- Ind's trying to send medical relief to PRC thru the "delayed" flight & hope C will let it in 15/