Thread by @tanvi_madan

.@MEAIndia reax to Soleimani's killing. Balances US, Iran rel imperatives, & concern re escalation in region crucial to India.
Few things to note in tweets below... 1/

@MEAIndia India stmt re US, Iran devps
- uses term "killing" not "assassination"
- calls QS "senior leader"
- puts Indian concern in context of world reax
- notes "increase in tension" (w/o explicitly IDing instigator)
- advocates restraint (unlike China, does not esp mention US)
2/

@MEAIndia The Gulf region is crucial for India:
- 8.5 million Indian citizens (Dec. 2018)
- source of majority of Indian oil & gas imports
- source of investment
- CT reasons
- Afg, Pak connex
- Transit route 3/

@MEAIndia India's concerns re US-Iran escalation
- spillover in ME, elsewhere
- safety of citizens
- econ impact (incl oil prices)
- fallout re Afg, Pak
- balancing its rels w US, Iran (+ Israel, KSA etc)
- being asked to make choices
- med/long-term: US focus on ME & not China/Indo-Pac 4/

@MEAIndia Other elements at play too. Unlike Iran, US (Trump admin) has been careful not to criticize India in last yr for Balakot, Art. 370 dilution, CAA. Moreover, around Pulawama-Balakot & at UN w/r/t Kashmir, US has actively helped India. Both Delhi & DC will bear this in mind. 5/

@MEAIndia Also, India had just felt it had made some progress w/r/t development & use of Iranian port of Chabahar. On EAM trip to DC in Dec, US reportedly gave written reassurance w/r/t that being exempt from sanctions. EAM then went to Iran & discussed that devp among other things 6/

@MEAIndia One additional thing to keep in mind: India values its relationship with Iran, yes. But that country has given India a hard time on various issues too & India's relationships with US, Israel, KSA, UAE are far closer. 7/

@MEAIndia One of the times, Delhi was 😡 with Tehran involved the IRGC & the attack it (reportedly) masterminded on an Israeli embassy car in 2012 - steps away from the Indian PM's residence - in which 4 ppl were injured. 8/
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Cop…

@MEAIndia Expanded on this thread in the following blog post:
brookings.edu/blog/order-fro…

@MEAIndia Mind you, whatever GOI says or does (& whatever it thinks of wisdom of the US action), in India more broadly there will be ?s - & some skepticism - abt US case. Iraq damaged US credibility in Ind too
(but there'll be some who envy US for being able to take an indv out like this)

@MEAIndia One aspect that I don't know enough abt is the nature or extent of Indian engagement w/ Soleimani or his successor Esmail Ghaani, esp w/r/t to Afghanistan (and Pakistan). 11/