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Just because oil production is down 33% in two weeks, don't panic!

Actually a fair point regarding intervention, if only because this is apt to be much larger than any realistic or even radical intervention.

cc: @ericgarland @ninaandtito @NatashaBertrand
@ericgarland @ninaandtito @NatashaBertrand The supply-demand tipping point has always been precarious.

Remember how much effort it took OPEC and Russia in concert to impact an oversupply of just a few million barrels a day during the last price crash.
@ericgarland @ninaandtito @NatashaBertrand Now add in renewables which can be financed at *negative* cost (as proven by the US military under the Obama Administration), US fracking, & conventional renewables constantly dropping in price per kilowatt/hour.

A demand crash may leave oil & gas industries permanently reduced.
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Ralph Cerchione
@Dry_Observer
@ericgarland @fullofsquirrels @tilidarose @thespybrief @FelisDave Fair enough, but you know what *really* doesn't care about our perspectives, or this or that national psyche or self-conception?

Reality.

People can use their own version of logic, their own version of facts, their own version of history.

But reality doesn't care.
@ericgarland @fullofsquirrels @tilidarose @thespybrief @FelisDave In 2014, Russia went under sanctions, and more importantly, the price of oil peaked on 6/23/14 and went into a rapid slide which took it to a quarter of its value.

Russia's economy lost 40+% of its per-capita GDP in about a year and a half.

Great Depression+ levels.
@ericgarland @fullofsquirrels @tilidarose @thespybrief @FelisDave China is finding out just what it means to try to sabotage a more powerful nation most inclined to help you on a massive scale when, say, a Corona virus outbreak hits...

While you're implicated in a massive Russo-Chinese attack on our democracy.
Read 30 tweets
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Ralph Cerchione
@Dry_Observer
.@DARPA I'm glad to see you're working on tracking weapons of mass destruction.

If this had anything to do with the long thread explaining how to track WMDs, drugs, etc with crowdsourced sensors you were copied into, the .@FBI has the redacted pieces.
upi.com/Defense-News/2…
@DARPA @FBI You'll remember that thread from two weeks ago.

Good turnaround time, by the way.

Also, I have considerably more formidable inventions available, though I've been pacing them to avoid excessive global disruption.
@DARPA @FBI Also, there's been a serious risk that too many unidentified foreign-intelligence moles existed in our government to risk sharing technology only they identified as valuable and acted on.

Hence, the counterintelligence methods referenced in that thread.
Read 5 tweets
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Ralph Cerchione
@Dry_Observer
@ericgarland Speaking of which, some people may be interested in the following, partially redacted system I sent to the @FBI on 1/1/20 for tracking all weapons of mass destruction, drugs, etc... globally.
cc: @DeptofDefense @DHSgov @NSAGov @DARPA @CDCgov @NIH @TheJusticeDept @RepAdamSchiff
@ericgarland @FBI @DeptofDefense @DHSgov @NSAGov @DARPA @CDCgov @NIH @TheJusticeDept @RepAdamSchiff @RepAdamSchiff recently expressed some well-founded concerns re: the abuse facial recognition, but some more positive applications are also worth considering.

Since no one at the @FBI or elsewhere has suggested keeping this quiet, it's worth sharing now.
@ericgarland @FBI @DeptofDefense @DHSgov @NSAGov @DARPA @CDCgov @NIH @TheJusticeDept @RepAdamSchiff Before we begin, let's keep one set of criteria in mind when considering any proposed technology.

Does it work?

How well?

Is it practical to employ?

Does it have significant drawbacks?
Read 331 tweets

Related threads

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Anas Alhajji
@anasalhajji
Thread on the return of #oil production in the #NeutralZone between #SaudiArabia and #Kuwait

The thread discusses the impact on the oil market with some historical perspective and some technical issues

1- "Neutral Zone" Was established in 1922 between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait
2- In 1922, a border agreement was reached after 6 days of intense negotiation between Abdulaziz, Sultan of Najd (later king of KSA), a British representative of Kuwait, another British representing Britain in charge of Gulf region &a representative of King Faisal of the of Iraq
3-However, they could not agree on certain areas where Bedouin tribes move back and forth seasonally. Negotiators agreed to create two shared zones: one between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and another between Saudi Arabia and Iraq, on the hope that issues will be resolved later.
Read 23 tweets
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Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
CHART OF THE DAY: The sudden loss of 5.7m b/d of #oil production is the single largest outage the market has ever sufferes (larger in volume than the loss of Iraqi and Kuwaiti output in the 1990 Gulf War, and the loss of Iranian oil in the 1979 Islamic Revolution) #OOTT
Of course, those other outages lasted for several month, so their cumulative pact was huge. Key here is how quickly Aramco can restart production (either through repairs, bypasses or increasing output elsewhere, notably its offshore fields in the Persian Gulf) #OOTT
Also, important to note that the overall oil market was a lot smaller in 1990 and 1979, so a smaller outage in volume terms (barrels per day) could have a much larger impact when considered as % of global supplies | #OOTT
Read 3 tweets
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Anas Alhajji
@anasalhajji
Thread: It is NOT only about #oil, Mr President
1. By threatening to pull US troops from Middle East because US oil production is ⬆️ & Middle East's oil is no longer needed, President Trump is contradicting himself on one hand & bringing a death sentence to US tight oil growth.
2. If it is about #oil only, those countries can crash the market for a long period and reduce US oil production by more than 3 mb/d, making the US more dependent on the Middle East again.
3. But #Trump is missing the point: He needs Middle eastern oil more than ever because of crude quality issues. It is no longer about quantity, Mr. President!
Read 8 tweets
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Johan S. McGuinne
@guektiengieline
Two years ago, I twisted my left ankle 270° and broke it in seven places. The damage was so bad, the Swedish doctors even considered amputating it. I spent two weeks in hospital and had extensive surgery. I paid $111 for a treatment which would've bankrupted me for life in the US
I even took the time to figure out how much my surgery and follow-up treatment would have cost in the US, as I was supposed to spend time in California shortly after my accident, and found out that it would have set me back more than $275,000.
If I have to choose between an American Freedom™ approved bill of $275,000 and socialist healthcare costing me no more than $111, I know what I'm choosing any and every day of the week.
Read 3 tweets
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Anas Alhajji
@anasalhajji
Thread....
What is the size of the global #oil spare production #capacity?
1- Spare capacity doesn't matter, what matters is the "effective spare capacity", which is what you can bring on line within 90 days of crude quality that buyers are willing to buy.

#OPEC
2- therefore, there are three conditions:
a- Supply: has to be produced within 90 days
b- Demand: Buyers are willing to buy it: crude quality and price wise
c- Delivery: Ability to deliver to byers. Stranded #oil production with no pipeline to transport should not be counted,
3- Effective spare capacity can be maintained for a long period if needed. Here we have to distinguish between "effective spare capacity" and "surge capacity." If those countries have to increase production only for few days, they can use surge capacity, which is way higher
Read 8 tweets
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Chuck Ross
@ChuckRossDC
Two pieces that stick out in NBC's Flynn report nbcnews.com/news/us-news/m…
"Millions of dollars"? Much larger than the $600k contract between Flynn Intel and Ekim Alptekin.
Imagine what all Flynn could have done as an agent of Turkey if he hadn't been fired 24 days into the job.
Read 8 tweets

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