Thread by @weatherindia

Is India's Hot Weather Keeping #Coronavirus at Bay? Experts Conflicted - by @deekshith_np

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Last month, the US President Donald Trump claimed in his speech that the new coronavirus disease COVID-19 would go away by April as the rising temperatures would kill the virus.

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Ever since he made this claim, the debate over the role of weather in the spread of the epidemic has dominated the public discourse.

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India has fortunately seen a fewer number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, despite being the neighbour of the epicentre of the outbreak, China.

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The number of confirmed cases have crossed 80,000 in China, 5,000 in South Korea and 2,000 in Italy. In India, so far, only six confirmed cases have been reported. The limited spread in India despite the dense population and subpar hygiene in our urban centres.

While screening lakhs of people coming from affected countries, enforcing travel advisories, quarantining suspected cases and clearing misconceptions have helped, experts are wondering if the weather also had a role to play in restricting the spread of the deadly virus in India.

Talking to The Times of India, RN Tagore International Institute of Cardiac Sciences (RTIICS) critical care head Souren Panja says that weather is definitely a deterrent for the viral attacks in India.

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Even in Seoul in South Korea, where the number of confirmed cases saw a sharp rise recently, minimum temperatures were much below 0°C during February. Even Rome in Italy and Tehran in Iran recorded sub-zero temperatures in February.

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In contrast, most of the major cities in India witnessed temperatures in the range of 10 to 35°C in February.

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Even the lowest minimum temperature recorded in Delhi was more than 5°C. While Kolkata saw minimum temperatures around 10°C in February, the mercury stayed above 15°C in Bengaluru and Hyderabad and above 20°C in Mumbai and Chennai.

Representational Image: (IANS)

Not just the present coronavirus outbreak, even the earlier epidemics like MERS, SARS, Ebola and yellow fever, which killed thousands across Asia, America and Africa, had a minimal impact in India.

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Therefore, scientists suggest that the viral infections of this category may not spread as rapidly in India as they did in countries with colder climate as high temperature and humidity could be making it difficult for viruses to survive and remain potent.

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Will summer really save us?

This hypothesis, however, has a fair bit of opposition as well. Aggarwal also suggests that there are chances that the #coronavirus is transmitting without detection.

The high incidence of pneumonia among elders of the country could be masking the actual coronavirus infections. Aggarwal suggests testing all the rapidly advancing cases of pneumonia for SARS-CoV-2.

Moreover, countries like Singapore, where the temperatures hovered between 23 to 33°C in February, has also recorded 110 cases of coronavirus. Therefore, experts warn that higher temperature alone may not help to curb the new #coronavirus.

(Photo credit: IANS/DPRO)

The last outbreak of the similar virus, #SARS, in 2003 also persisted till July, deep into the summer in the northern hemisphere. Even the MERS affected the middle-eastern countries the most, which are known to have sweltering weather year-round.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) president Dr Nancy Messionnier also said that it is premature to assume that the virus is seasonal.

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Scientists are now hinting that the disease may never really go away entirely and has the potential to turn into a perennial disease like common cold and flu. Developing a robust vaccine to prevent the spread is, therefore, crucial for effective response.

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No matter whether the viral load comes down during summers or not, restricting it's spread to the maximum extent possible should be the priority for all the countries, including India.

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