Thread by @frankbaitman

1/ Does anything about the CDC guidance on #CoronavirusUSA strike you as odd?

"Seek Medical Advice if you have been in close contact with a person known to have COVID-19"

2/ How would you know if someone has been positively diagnosed with COVID-19? It's actually quite simple, there's only one way: be positively tested.

3/ Once again, this is simple: the CDC is responsible for public health surveillance. Their website is the Gold Standard: reporting state-by-state cases.

Here's the @CDCgov website stats on Tuberculosis, cdc.gov/tb/statistics/…

@CDCgov 4/ I'd like to point you to the CDC website stats on Coronavirus, but they're simply not as comprehensive. They were apparently removed, and then they returned with less granularity.

@CDCgov 5/ A CDC spokesperson explained, "Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC's numbers may not represent all of the testing being done nationwide"
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…

@CDCgov 6/ It's curious: the CDC is in the business of collaborating with the 50 states' health departments. But when it comes to #coronavirus they're no longer able to obtain this data.

Why does this matter?

@CDCgov 7/ According to the @CDCgov website today, there are 164 cases in the United States. That doesn't appear too bad.

(Although the CDC reports 11 deaths on 164 cases, we're at a mortality rate of 7%, 3x higher than the 2+% reported in China)

@CDCgov 8/ Of course, there are actually 19 deaths in the US as of today.

How was that figure derived? The news media called in to the 50 state health departments. Something the CDC doesn't seem to want to do.

@CDCgov 9/ How does this relate back to the CDC's guidance on seeking medical advice?

The CDC says that you should seek out care "if you have been in close contact with a person known to have COVID-19"

@CDCgov 10/ Who is known to have novel coronavirus? Well, you'd know if you've been tested. According to the CDC the dark green states are actively testing:

@CDCgov 11/ But we're not told how many Americans have been tested. In fact, the CDC doesn't provide that data (any longer).

@TheAtlantic did what the CDC once did: collected the data from primary sources, the 50 State health departments.

@CDCgov @TheAtlantic 12/ The data isn't perfect, and is indeed likely flawed, but it's as good as we've got.

Nationally, 1,895 Americans have been tested according to @TheAtlantic

@CDCgov @TheAtlantic 13/ Do you know one of these 1,895 people? Likely not, we're a nation of 330 million.

Does that mean you haven't been in close contact with a person known to have COVID-19? For a select few American's it's an easy answer. But for most of us, it's impossible to know.

@CDCgov @TheAtlantic 14/ So, what's the point of the CDC guidance? If it's intended for just the few thousand people who "know" someone who has tested positive, that won't mitigate the spread of coronavirus.

But perhaps, that's not the objective of @CDCDirector's guidance?

@CDCgov @TheAtlantic @CDCDirector 15/ Seems to me that this guidance is intended to limit public fear –– but it's achieved quite the opposite. Perhaps the shortage of tests also drove the guidance?

But the hype over #coronavirus came about because this guidance is so vague (& specific - knowing 1 of 164 people)

@CDCgov @TheAtlantic @CDCDirector 16/ The CDC is a remarkable institution, and the people there have navigated us skillfully through Ebola, SARS, H1N1 and many more.

Why they haven't performed at the same level thus far should concern all Americans & Congress.

@CDCgov @TheAtlantic @CDCDirector 17/ It concerns me that there's political interference in the execution of crisis-tested protocols. Especially when I see stories like this:

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1236476457494417408

@CDCgov @TheAtlantic @CDCDirector 18/ The first step in repairing trust with the American people should be new CDC guidance. We have to move quickly to mitigate the spread of #coronavirus.

We know how to impede a pandemic: will we trust the professionals to lead?