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How much worse might the coronavirus outbreak get? @NickKristof and @StuartAThompson created a model you can adjust to see what will happen depending on how people change their behavior. nyti.ms/38L6f24
We shouldn’t see this model as a precise prediction. It's useful, though, to show the difference interventions can make.

Without interventions, the model shows 100 million infected (9.4 million at once) and about 1 million dead. nyti.ms/38L6f24
Why do we need to #FlattentheCurve? This model shows how total infections (100 million) can be spread out with certain interventions, which will prevent the health care system from being overwhelmed. nyti.ms/38L6f24
Play with the model here, adjust the intervention measures, change the start date. Models are not predictions, but this might help people understand the stakes.

(Thanks to @AshTuite and @DFisman for their help developing this model.) nyti.ms/38L6f24
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André Picard
@picardonhealth
In today's column, I tried to answer the question: "How much worse can the #coronavirus pandemic get?" So, for data geeks like me, I'm going to post a thread of stories and graphs with projections. theglobeandmail.com/canada/article…
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0. The coronavirus outbreak is disruptive, scary, and tragic. In a moment of crisis, it's natural to lose hope. However, crises often have surprising, and positive, second-order impacts. In the spirit of hope and resilience, here's a thread of silver linings.
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Nilo Tabrizy
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@IndoPac_Info
#coronavirus

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