#coronavirus silver linings: a thread
0. The coronavirus outbreak is disruptive, scary, and tragic. In a moment of crisis, it's natural to lose hope. However, crises often have surprising, and positive, second-order impacts. In the spirit of hope and resilience, here's a thread of silver linings.
1.1: Pandemic Preparedness
We've learned that we are woefully under-prepared for pandemics. This is something we can only learn through grim experience.
We've learned that we are woefully under-prepared for pandemics. This is something we can only learn through grim experience.
1.2 As luck would have it, the pandemic teaching us this lesson has a 1-5% fatality rate. It could be much, much, much worse.
1.3 The black death killed between 30-60% of Europe's population. Smallpox killed upwards of 90% of the Native American population. Given our unpreparedness, a global pandemic could have been a society-ending catastrophe.
1.3 In the coming years, we will see a broad-based consensus--across nations, classes, and political parties--that we need to prevent this from happening again. If covid19 means that we are ready when an civilization-threatening pathogen surfaces, then we are lucky.
2.1 Shared Reality
In recent years, we've experienced a breakdown in consensus reality. Our intersubjective reality--the reality that we, as social creatures, directly live in--has fragmented into competing factions that cannot not agree, even on basic facts.
In recent years, we've experienced a breakdown in consensus reality. Our intersubjective reality--the reality that we, as social creatures, directly live in--has fragmented into competing factions that cannot not agree, even on basic facts.
2.2 For years, I've wondered where this leads. I feared it would require one side violently triumphing over the other and imposing its worldview; given the relative strength of both sides, this would be horrifying.
2.3 However, covid19 actually lives in objective, rather than intersubjective (or political) reality. This provides an opportunity for us to re-orient on a shared experience and shared outcomes rather than zero-sum status competition.
2.4 It's cognitively easy to assert that Trump did nothing wrong, and impeachment was a witch hunt. But you can't bullshit your way out of a viral infection. Our society is about to get a visceral lesson on the difference between "fake news" and scientific fact.
2.5 I hope to see us come together around our shared experience, vulnerability, and fragility. Crises create powerful opportunities for empathy and unification. Optimistically, this might convert into the ability to coordinate and make sacrifices re: climate change.
3.1 Demographic shift
A deep structural problem in American society is that wealth and political power are concentrated among boomers, and a generation has a "f u, got mine" mindset, protecting their privilege rather than investing in a healthy society.
A deep structural problem in American society is that wealth and political power are concentrated among boomers, and a generation has a "f u, got mine" mindset, protecting their privilege rather than investing in a healthy society.
3.2 Every human life is precious, and each individual death is a tragedy. I'm rooting for every person infected (even those I most vigorously disagree with) to make a recovery.
3.3 But, looking at realistic consequences: This virus is much more dangerous to the septuagenarians than to the millenials. This will make space for younger voices in politics. This will make space for new perspectives in our economy. Collectively, we need that space.
4.1 Shocks are healthy
Shocks are necessary for healthy, adaptive, and antifragile systems. We've become good--too good--at maintaining our comfort. That comfort breeds complacency and passivity, and fragility.
Shocks are necessary for healthy, adaptive, and antifragile systems. We've become good--too good--at maintaining our comfort. That comfort breeds complacency and passivity, and fragility.
4.2 Economically, we've become too good at ensuring megacorps can never fail, profits can never fall, and asset prices can never decline. Psychologically, we've become too good at prioritizing our own comfort; paradoxically, this breeds deep anxiety.
4.3 This is going to be a big shock for us, economically and psychologically. Companies will fail. Our self of normalcy is being shattered. But when we rebuild, we will be stronger for the shock. Personally, I think my sense of "what feels scary" will recalibrate for the better.
Fin: The presence of silver linings doesn't erase the suffering and tragedy of the pandemic. We must all work to mitigate its spread; to support each other; to stay appropriately informed and concerned. But don't give up hope. Our story doesn't end here.
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