Thread by @onlyyoontv

😬 Bad omen for rest of world. #China data for Jan-Feb out. Record LOW production/consumption, record HIGH unemployment.

Industrial output -13.5% y/y (est 1.5% Dec 6.9%)
Retail sales -20.5% (est 0.8% Dec 8%)
FAI -24.5% (est -2.8%, Dec 5.4%)
Unemployment 6.2% (Jan 5.3% Dec 5.2%)

Further data breakdown Jan-Feb amid #coronavirus:

Services production: -13.0% (Dec 6.8%)

Catering revenue: -43.1%
Online retail sales: +3% (21.5% total sales of consumer goods)

Investment in manufacturing: -31.5%
Investment in high-tech: -17.9%

stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/2020…

On outlook, #China expects #coronavirus impact to fall in Q2, economy to stabilize rest of year, stats bureau says. Adds unemployment rate will decline in H2. Official says China has room to appropriately raise budget deficit ratio. Will also expand investment, boost consumption.

“GDP to recover on a q/q basis in Q2-Q4. But this recovery will be constrained by lingering domestic demand weakness and, especially, a stuttering global economy in the face of escalating outbreaks elsewhere. This points to very meagre growth in #China for 2020.” @OxfordEconomics

“While the targeted RRR cut under the inclusive finance scheme effective [Mar 16] is expected to inject bank liquidity of RMB550b, we anticipate a further cut to #China’s 1Y Loan Prime Rate of 5bp [20 Mar].”-Mizuho concerned unemployment, weaker global demand due to #coronavirus.

“#China's Premier said on Mar 12 as long as employment is stable, variations in economic growth do not matter that much, signaling to us higher tolerance for lower growth amid increased risk of global recession.” @MorganStanley sees lower LPR, local gov’t bonds, consumer vouchers