In 2015-16 it took 2 risk-off episodes of August-September'15 & January-February'16 - i.e. 7 months - for those HY spreads to spike to 900bps. This time it took 1 month 2 already spike to 800bps. They will soon be above 1000bps (as macro & debt worse) 2 trigger a huge DEBT CRISIS 
Credit markets are on verge of full crisis. Toxic leveraged loans, CLOs, a trillion $ of fallen angels in HG, trillions of junky leveraged HY debt, covenant-lite & other loose lending standards are now imploding. HY spreads spiking, all credit markets shut down with 0 new issues
Next leg of the credit/debt crisis will be run on open ended credit funds that look like banks with massive maturity mismatch: illiquid assets traded OTC & liabilities that can run overnight triggering fire sales & exacerbating spread spikes, triggering further domino of losses
The Coming Debt/Financial Crisis: in 2007-09 it was households/mortgages/levered banks in US. This time is corporate debt (CLOs, leveraged loans, 1 trillion of fallen angels in HG & HY, & commercial RE) & shadow banks. & even capitalized banks directly exposed to shadow banks!
Bermuda Triangle of Meltdown: health/financial shocks lead 2 real economy recession. That in turn leads 2 illiquidity that causes insolvency. But many agents are insolvent not just illiquid. Insolvency/debt crisis & illiquidity then collapse real economy causing more insolvency
Citi’s Corbat said ‘this is not a financial crisis’ during Trump meet with Wall Street CEOs. Sounds like Citi's Prince saying in '07: "You gotta dance while the music is playing". But 2 bad the credit music had already stopped playing then as is today for shadow banks & debt mkt!
When I warned about the coming debt crisis and recession I received skeptical responses. Now the idea of one is becoming mainstream.
After after I explained why we headed 2 a debt crisis & global recession, the CNBC anchors, gaping like stunned mullets, had nothing better to say than call me Dr Doom & claim debt mkt was only "dislocated" & that spread spike was only "price discovery"!
Other serious stress in debt markets is the commercial paper (CP) market where even HG firms are finding difficult 2 issue CP that is key source of working capital. So like 2008 after Lehman the Fed will have 2 soon announce (possibly today) a program to backstop the CP market!
