Thread by @pmdfoster

EXC: As this week's #Brexit talks formally canned, understand now top-level acceptance that UK WILL seek extension - just question of timing& choroeography. Details here 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…

This marks shift of top-level thinking even from weekend when 'big five' in No 10 REALLY REALLY didn't want to seek extension - and officially that remains position per statement tonight. BUT... /2

Reality is already biting.

- two Director-Generals (that's a rank below perm-sec) on #Brexit negs have already shifted to #coronavirus duties

- Cab Cmme on both EU and US trade talks have been canned. "expectation" is that UK/US talks won't proceed/open even by vidlink. /3

None of this is really surprising; but important to get choreography correct so it is not adversarial or point-scoring.

Understand one idea is to share FTA drafts; acknowledge deep gaps and rising Coronavirus reality and mutally agree to extend. /4

Official line remains: “Both sides remain fully committed to the negotiations and we remain in regular contact with the European Commission to consider alternative ways to continue discussions...The transition period ends on 31 December 2020. This is enshrined in UK law.” But../5

Truth is that both sides have struggled to get drafts prepared even for these now-cancelled talks.

EU dips met on Friday in person for last time, now all being done by email. Coronavirus killing bandwidth for both sides. /6

I don't honestly see the political difficulties here - very soon (if not already) CONTINUING that talks will be much politically toxic than CANCELLING them.

No requirement for grandstanding. The world where EU was urging UK extension, and UK was refusing was another world /7

There will also, presumably - tho no-one seems to have deets yet they can share - will need to be a money negotiation since #Brexit financial settlment of £39bn only covers to end of 2020. /8

Have asked around and presumption is that some non-contentious formula can be found - can't see either side wanting to cut up rough.

Just make it a fait accomple - and a 'flextension' that can fall away when deal is done depending on #coronavirus timelines /9

Thinking in No 10 has always been about the need to "shock" business into action/change.

But after 2020 and the coming Corona cashflow crunch, you'd be shocking a half-dead patient. Might finish everyone off. /10

Where does this leave #Brexit? Well that's really as open-ended question as to where #coronavirus is going to leave the global economy, the EU and the UK as well. None of us know, simply put - all is up in the air. /11

Even before this the UK had incipient productivity crisis - and was facing three huge strucutral adjustments (Brexit, Immigration overhaul and Net zero) - but now has global supply/demand-side shocks and no clarity when it ends. Still a big range of outcomes here. /12

In any event, until we have clearer horizons on #Coronavirus then the #Brexit talks will have to go on hold. A question of when, not if. 13/ENDS