Thread by @propublica

If coronavirus infects 20% of the U.S. adult population over 12 months, many regions would run out of hospital beds, according to data compiled by @HarvardGH that @ProPublica analyzed & mapped.

This is one of the *best-case* scenarios.

Let’s look at some other scenarios. 👇

If the virus spreads faster or a greater percentage of people are infected, bed shortages would be more severe.

If 20% of the country is infected over 6 months, most regions would need way more hospital beds than are currently available.

Hospitals would be forced to either expand capacity, limit elective surgeries and unnecessary treatments or even make life-and-death decisions about rationing care.

If 40% of the country is infected in 12 months, all regions would be severely over capacity.

In the worst-case scenario @HarvardGH modeled — with a 60% infection rate in just 6 months — the nation would require more than *seven times* the number of hospital beds that it currently has.

That’s why slowing the spread over a longer period of time is critical.

To be clear: There are big caveats. This assumes hospitals do not...

👉Drastically expand capacity, which many are discussing
👉Free up beds by discharging patients, which many are trying to do

The models are based on early data from other countries, but info changes every day.

Under researchers’ best-case scenario, Americans will act quickly to slow the spread of the virus through social distancing, and the infection rate among adults will remain relatively low at 20%.

But keep in mind...

Public health officials are particularly worried about the coronavirus because it is far deadlier than the flu and because it appears to be more contagious. @NYGovCuomo said Tuesday that he expects a flood of patients in the state’s hospitals that could overwhelm their capacity.

Only a few thousand Americans have been confirmed with coronavirus, but epidemiologists say a 20% infection rate among adults is conservative based on prior pandemics. The 2009 H1N1 swine flu infected 20% of Americans over a year, and coronavirus appears to be more contagious.

Experts say if we adopt social distancing strategies, like staying home and avoiding crowds, we can slow the spread so hospital staff can be better prepared to treat patients in the coming months.

Use our tool to look up how many beds there are in hospitals near you and what will happen to them depending on how quickly or slowly the virus spreads propub.li/2Wmd5so

This is why public health experts are urging social distancing.

More details 👇

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