Of course we overreact or under react to risks and things going on in the world. 1) it’s nearly impossible to get the “perfect” amount of reacting and 2) we’re powerless over a lot of big things in the short term, so what’s the point of worrying /1
But here’s why we all need to take some care with respect to #SARSCoV2 and we all need to do our part with washing hands and not coughing on our neighbor on the subway, even though for most it will be mild disease /2
Latest numbers I’ve seen for expected attack rate for first 12 months is 30%. 80% of cases are mild, 14% serious (need hospital), 5-6% critical (need ICU, usually for weeks). That’s better and worse than originally thought. /3
Overall case fatality is variable depending on resources and age/illness in population. But here’s where health professionals and armchair pandemic watchers are worried. It’s those last two numbers, 14% serious, 5-6% critical. 4/
The US has about 45,000 ICU beds total (from pandemic flu government prep lit). Most of these are occupied already during flu season. Now let’s go back to the numbers and US population of approx 350,000,000. 5/
350 million x 30% x 5% equals 5.25 million ICU beds needed when we only have 45,000. No ICU bed if you need it, you die, that is what ⬆️⬆️⬆️ case fatality in Wuhan and Iran and maybe northern Italy. Taken by surprise and/or managed poorly, you simply run out of hospital beds 6/
Obviously these hospital beds aren’t needed all at one time, but stretch out 5.25 million over 52 weeks...still need 100,000 ICU beds if the epidemic is spread out perfectly evenly and people need it one week each. Remember, we have only 45,000, mostly occupied already. 7/
These estimates are why governments are taking it so seriously, limiting gatherings and cutting off travel for a “mild” disease. If we just let the epidemic go willy-nilly, it has the potential to be quite dire, as we have *already seen* in parts of the world. 8/
If we do this right, inconvenience people a bit, and do our part washing hands and not touching our faces, staying home if sick, and allowing employees to stay home when sick, we can seriously slow down the spread and save time and many lives. 9/
Hopefully everyone whining about how ridiculous all this “hysteria” is for a mild cold, and how the dire predictions were totally off will be correct. A mere double flu season is nasty, but for most, not a big deal. 10/
Ironically, if we take this very seriously, we will be okay. And y’all can say we were being ridiculous for being concerned. I don’t mind at all if this is the outcome. Fin/
Post script: even if the numbers are off and this is pessimistic, we’re still an order of magnitude away from number of beds we need. I have many beloved patients and family members who are elderly or have pre-existing conditions, and I want them here next year. So....
