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1) We put this research piece together in January with the intention of keeping it internal and solely sharing it with clients we advise, but given the fear in the market, especially for miners, we have elected to share it with everybody. blockwaresolutions.com/research-and-p…
2) Everyone in the Bitcoin space should deeply understand this information as it thoroughly explains the Bitcoin Mining Network and how Miners create constant sell pressure on the price of Bitcoin. Bitcoin Miners are the backbone of the network as they are the security layer and
3) arguably the most important market participant to understand, just as OPEC effects the Oil Market and US Shale has its breakeven shut off prices. The difference in the Bitcoin Commodity is new supply is always released every 10 minutes, which is dictated by code rather than
4) by suppliers – how the newly minted coin is managed significantly impacts price.
5) Many believe the trading volume in Bitcoin is what drives Bitcoin Price but a majority is churn and short-term trading, which exacerbates volatility. Intermediate and long-term trend is determined by net fiat inflows and outflows – not short-term, churn volume.
6) Short term – churn creates volatility but we are most interested in understanding long-term trend. Investment Funds and Hodlers counter balance sell pressure driven by miners who must fund their electricity expenses. Investment Fund and Hodler demand sentiment vs
7) miner supply side economics is critical to understand.
8) We’ve examined the composition of every Layer of the Bitcoin Mining Network and modeled out the vulnerabilities in the Price of Bitcoin driven by miners at different price points, which are derived by breakeven prices (shut off prices) by miners with varying electricity rates.
9) What is critical to understand is miners with 3c electricity running Old Gen Equipment now have a higher breakeven price than miners with 7.5c electricity running Next Gen Equipment.
10) We bust the myth/misconception that the average miner’s cost of production is support – rather it is the opposite of support and accelerates sell offs in Bitcoin.
11) Understanding the game theory behind miner decision making and how radically different on paper operational results are vs. real operational results and how this variance accelerates sell offs in Bitcoin Price.
12) We explain how Next Generation Mining Rigs have leveled the mining playing field but will create a sustained bleed out on the price of Bitcoin. We have and continue to experience a Hardware Upgrade Cycle that is keeping high electricity miners in the game.
13) We illustrate how the 2020 Halving will impact the Bitcoin Industry and spotlight how it will affect miners – most importantly how efficient miners, investment funds and Hodlers should welcome the Halving rather than fear it.
14) There will be short-intermediate term chaos but the stage for the next leg up in Bitcoin will be setup.
15) We explain the minimally understood phenomena: Difficulty. How it is Satoshi’s Ingenious Network Stabilizing Mechanism and illustrate its Gravitational Pull on Profit Margin. One of the least appreciated characteristics of the Bitcoin Protocol.
16) Lastly, we illustrate how Miner Capitulation occurs & how it accelerates bottoms in Bitcoin.
.@skwp .@fundstrat .@Xentagz .@TuurDemeester .@DenisRusinovich .@thomasheller_ .@cburniske .@NicTrades ,@DoeKid .@TusharJain_ .@woonomic .@throughnothing .@100trillionUSD .@Rewkang
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