Thread by @RushDoshi

Excited to share a new piece with Kurt Campbell in @ForeignAffairs!

It argues that China is racing to be seen as the global leader of the coronavirus response as the US falters.

China knows that orders can change gradually at first, then all at once.

foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-…

1. HEALTH FIRST: The virus's geopolitical implications should be considered secondary to matters of health and safety, but they are not being forgotten in Beijing nor should they be ignored in Washington - and they have implications for the US position.

2. SUEZ MOMENT: In 1956, a botched intervention in the Suez laid bare the decay in British power and marked the end of its time as a global power.

Today, if the US does not rise to meet the moment, the coronavirus pandemic could mark another “Suez moment.”

3. US LEGITIMACY: US leadership is based not only on wealth/power, but also on *legitimacy* which flows from US:

a) domestic governance,
b) global/public goods provision,
c) ability to coordinate global crisis response,

(among other things)

4. STRESSED LEGITIMACY: The coronavirus pandemic is testing all three of those elements of US leadership. So far, Washington is failing the test.

Meanwhile, Beijing is striving to making progress on all three fronts.

5. CHINA'S MISHANDLING: China (a) covered up the crisis, (b) delayed the intl response, (c) is spreading conspiracy theories, and (d) is expelling large numbers of journalists.

That's not top-tier leader behavior. So China's leadership push is an act of chutzpah.

6. PRC DOMESTIC GOVERNANCE: Rightly or wrongly, Beijing is boasting about its supposed success in battling the virus while Western governments struggle.

"China’s signature strength, efficiency and speed in this fight has been widely acclaimed," its MFA spokesman declared.

7. US DOMESTIC GOVERNANCE: Meanwhile, the US tests fewer per capita than any developed country; delayed its response for political reasons; and took apart pandemic response infrastructure.

Xinhua - with no sense of irony - now blasts US "irresponsibility and incompetence."

8. GOODS PRODUCTION: China makes the masks, respirators, and APIs necessary for crisis response.

The US has 1% of needed masks/respirators and 10% of needed ventilators.

The US lacks the industrial capacity to fill its own demand, let alone offer aid now as the crisis worsens

9. GOODS PROVISION: China is stepping in as a global goods provider - benefiting from timing, its industrial base, and low expectations.

It's sending aid to Europe, 54 African states, Iran, the US.

The US sent aid earlier, but it can't now given the worsening crisis at home.

10. COORDINATION: 5 years ago, the US led the 70-country Ebola response.

Today, its AWOL on coordinating crisis response, goods flows, fiscal stimulus, info sharing, etc.

China isn't doing this yet, but it is convening countries (17+1, SCO, PIF) to discuss crisis response.

11. WHAT TO DO: China’s chief asset in its pursuit of global leadership is the perceived inadequacy and inward focus of U.S. policy.

Washington needs to do what is expected of a leader: manage the problem at home, supply global public goods, and coordinate a global response.

12. HOW TO LEAD:

The US needs to handle the crisis at home (for its own sake, setting aside politics).

It needs to wartime industrial mobilization in masks, ventilators, and respirators to save lies and reduce global scarcity.

And it needs to coordinate a global response.

13. VACCINES: The US has comparative advantages on vaccine production. Some companies aren't jumping in given the costs, so the US needs to massively subsidize this research, related clinical trials, and eventual mass production.

14. DEALING WITH CHINA: Little is gained by emphasizing the virus's origins - which are widely known - or getting in tit-for-tat exchanges w/ China.

This makes us look small when the moment calls for something more, and it asymmetrically hurts us since we're expected to lead.

15. GETTING THE MESSAGE: Most countries don't want to see us put China at the center of the coronavirus narrative.

They want a message that takes the crisis and its solutions seriously.

And we can tout (and study) successful responses in open societies such as Taiwan & Korea

16. WORKING WITH CHINA: We look like the world leader when we reach out to China (and it's hard as they spread conspiracy theories and expels journalists).

The stakes are too high not to coordinate on vaccines, clinical trials, stimulus, info sharing, goods, aid

17. BOTTOM LINE:

As China strives to claim leadership, the success of its efforts will depend as much on what happens in Washington as it will on what happens in Beijing.

In that competition - as in so many areas - the United States can do well by doing good.

Finally, sincere thanks to @dankurtzphelan and @ForeignAffairs for the opportunity!