Thread by @db_is_db

The bubonic plague, trade routes and the industrial revolution, and the emergence of new world order.

Given this historical context, would the chinese virus pandemic lay the foundation for significant changes?

Excerpts from a variety of sources - scientific papers mostly.

1. Marco Polo through Asia along the Silk Road between 1271 and 1295.

He had undertaken voyages from Venice across the Mediterranean Sea, overland through Persia and Central Asia to the court of Kublai Khan, grandson of Genghis Khan and founder of the Yuan dynasty.

2. A diversion.

Kubla Khan is a poem written by Samuel Taylor Coleridge one night after he experienced an opium-influenced dream after reading a work describing Xanadu, the summer palace of the Mongol ruler and Emperor of China Kublai Khan.

Quite a lyrical poem ...

3. The Black Death, is said to have originated in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbours of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system.

4. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This is a consequence to the introduction of Yersinia pestis in European rodents.

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

5. The plague killed between 1/3rd to 2/3rd of the European population and affected northern Africa and large parts of Asia as well.

6. According to a reconstruction, plague was endemic in the wild rodent population of the Himalaya. When the Mongols incorporated that area into their growing empire, they sparked an outbreak.

cambridge.org/core/journals/…

7. In 1331 it affected the province of Hebei in north-eastern China. This might have been the beginning of the pandemic that subsequently crossed the Asian steppe reaching the shores of the Black Sea in 1346.

8. From the Black Sea shores, the plague spread by ship to Byzantium, to some areas of southern Italy, and possibly to Marseille in southern France in 1347. By 1348, it ranged over the Mediterranean area and the rest of Europe.

researchgate.net/publication/32…

9. In Europe and the Mediterranean region, the plague killed up to 50 million people, making it the second-worst pandemic in human history, behind the 1917–1919 Spanish Influenza that killed between 50 and 100 million people. It remains first in terms of mortality rates.

10. An economic historian Sevket Pamuk argued that the decreased labor force subsequent to the plague caused a sharp rise in real wages while, the increased land-to-workers ratio caused a decline
in the relative price between agri and manuf goods.

econ.sciences-po.fr/sites/default/…

11. Another theory states that the scarcity of labor after the Black Death led to a change in agricultural technology. Farmers changed from growing crops to tending animals, from arable farming to husbandry.

gulzar05.blogspot.com/2018/08/black-…

12. The result of this adaptation of agricultural technology changed the role of women in medieval society. Switching from crops to husbandry reduced the demand for strength to push plows and expanded the scope of work that women could do.

13. The result was a change in the status of women in society. Women’s wages rose and their opportunity for work expanded. They delayed marriage, entered service and became more independent, leading to a massive change in the structure of society

14. One study estimates that the share of pastoral production in English agricultural output rose dramatically from 47 to 70% between 1270 and 1450. The adaptation to the initial shock led to a durable rise in people’s income.

15. The crucial link. One economist argues that Industrial Revolution is the result of this high-wage economy after the plague. The early innovations of the Industrial Revolution emerged from tinkering to reduce the costs of expensive labor and reap the benefits of cheap power.

16. And what do we have as a consequence of the Industrial Revolution - colonisation in the quest for new markets. To drive the large scale industrial output from these innovations and also source raw material.

A new world order began, which finally was dismantled post WW2.

17. Frame switch. The rise of private equity post WW2, the wave of corporate takeovers, and as a result - the pressure on CEOs to max short term profits. Cheap and hungry labour, tech enablers. The result - any corp worth its salt has China as an imp part of its supply chain.

18. Example of drug manufacturing. Rosemary Gibson in a US - China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing in Jul 2019 noted , centralization of the global supply chain of medicines in a single country makes it vulnerable to interruption, “whether by mistake or design.”

19. Her testimony to the commission is telling.

uscc.gov/sites/default/…

"Because the U.S. has allowed the industrial base to wither, the U.S. cannot produce generic antibiotics for children’s ear infections, strep throat, pneumonia, urinary tract infections, STD etc"

20. So are we going to see a new order emerge with the end of the quest for maximising short term profits? Are governments going to shape policies which keep strategic interests in mind, and enforce them aggressively? Are trade barriers in for a huge shift ?

21. Global supply chains are in for a change. 3 critical elements (i) producers - will be diversified. China may no longer be the focal point (ii) Enablers - trade tariffs, quotas etc may be re-negotiated (iii) Disruptors - tech platforms will see greater investments and impetus