Thread by @iamkunalshiv

1/ Thread on how real is #coronavirus2020 threat.

Amid all the chaos, there is a certain section of people who believe the coronavirus threat is amplified and not a cause of worry.

#CoronaVirusUpdate
#CoronavirusOutbreakindia
#IndiaFightsCorona
#Corona

2/They correlated the number of deaths with #coronavirus to diseases like common flu, etc arguing that it is not as serious as it is being shown.

The most important factor they didn't consider is the virality of a disease and network effects as its consequences.

3/ To understand the virality of a disease, R0 is an important factor to consider.

R0 tells how many additional cases of a disease each infected person will cause during their infectious period.

4/ Coronavirus R0 is somewhere in a range of 1.4 to 4.08 according to WHO.

Common Cold and other diseases don't even have a range near to this.

5/ Secondly, the virality of #coronavirus coupled with its longer incubation is creating wider network effects than any other disease.

Here is the chart, which shows several cases with the number of deaths on the logarithmic scale.

6/ Network effects can be better viewed of its strength in log scale.

And even in the log scale, the curve is trending upward.

This is the reason, the #Coronavirus is one of the most deadliest diseases.