I see people making comparisons to the deaths due to flu and car accidents to down play the potential for this china virus but let's look at other comparisons
American deaths:
9/11 2977
WW2 405,000+
Pearl Harbor 2403
WW1 116,516
Spanish Flu 500,000-675,000
American deaths:
9/11 2977
WW2 405,000+
Pearl Harbor 2403
WW1 116,516
Spanish Flu 500,000-675,000
We changed much of our government and norms after 9/11 not because 2977 people died but because of the potential that entire cities could. We fought world war 2, changed our entire economy and sacrificed 405k+ people not because 2403 people died in pearl harbor but because of the
....potential that our entire country would be destroyed if we didn't. While WW1 didn't bring the same concerns to our society, we sacrificed life and treasure to stop a potential of a future we disagreed with. We know from the Spanish flu the potential of a new virus with no
immunity, a high death rate and high contagion that could happen to this country. We have seen it happen. This isn't some science fiction possibility. Our country lived through that time of mass death 100 years ago. It's not ancient history. The tools the government used at that
...time are much the same as those being used now. Social distancing, quarantine, outlawing large gatherings, closing businesses with heavy human traffic, etc. The difference is that the government is using these tools today before the mass death to try to avoid those deaths
If the models are right, big if I'll agree, but if they are right the potential is there to lose more people to the China virus than we did to all the wars we fought in the last 100 years by doing nothing. If that happened we would survive, the economy would survive.
However, the entire society would change. many of the businesses being impacted by the shutdown would still be impacted. Some would close for good as they slowly went out of business for lack of customers as people on their own would practice social distancing and self quarantine
as the death toll mounted. It's just human behavior to avoid those places during an epidemic. The stock market would still fall over the next several months as the virus played out and infections were reported across the country and regions went through their version of death and
misery while the virus burned itself out. There would still be panic and fear as the death toll mounted. We weren't going to avoid all the economic impacts if we did nothing. They would have just been added to the death toll and slow rolled out over months instead of weeks.
So which is better? Doing it before the death toll to try to stop the death or after the deaths start? I'll leave that up to the reader. As I always say and encourage, "think as you will" but I hope people understand that no government would sit back and do nothing as deaths rose
...above what people consider "normal". Just look at the cries in the media and among the people to "do something now". Think how much louder those cries would be if say 5,000-10,000 died and healthcare systems were overwhelmed. We see what happened in Italy and Europe.
Their tune changed within days as the death toll mounted. I'm optimistic by nature. I don't believe the worst case cries being made because humans tend to step in and prevent the worst case from happening. However, I temper that with the knowledge that 100 years ago we
...saw something similar happen and massive death did occur. Also it should be noted the numbers we are seeing including death rates and spread of infection are with active mitigation and containment efforts. Regardless, of what the numbers are or could be the die has been cast.
We are in this for the long haul. Actions have been taken. Mitigation and containment actions have been implemented. Areas have been quarantined. So, it really doesn't matter anymore if more people die from the Flu or car accidents or even in war. It is what it is. We are
living with the decisions our leaders have made. We can follow the guidelines recommended and end this quickly or we can go about our normal day, possibly having it drag out longer. I would rather this be over quickly so I'll listen to the guidelines as best as possible and
try to pass the best information I can around. I keep repeating that this virus is a concern, not a panic and I still think that's the best way to look at this. The concern explains the the steps taken so far by the federal government.
