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BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak.

Italy reports 6,557 new cases, 793 new deaths. Deaths 5 times the highest daily in China

Iran: Only 966 new cases, 123 new deaths. Hoping for further decline.

US: 4,557 new cases to 23,940 total. Hospitals overflowing.
World Total:
March 6: 100,000
March 17: 200,000, 11 days
March 21: 300,000, 4 d
Deaths:
Feb 18: 2,000 deaths
March 9: 4,000 deaths, 20 d
March 14: 6,000 deaths, 5 d
March 17: 8,000 deaths, 3 d
March 19: 10,000 deaths, 2 d

March 6: Bhutan 1 case, closed border. Today 2nd case.
This deserves repetition for all those, including the CDC, that deny the importance of travel restrictions.

March 6: Bhutan 1 case, closed border. Today 2nd case.

See also our analysis necsi.edu/eliminating-co…
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More from @yaneerbaryam see all

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Yaneer Bar-Yam
@yaneerbaryam
Ferguson et al (link) simulate outbreak response. Positive: They show suppression (lockdown R0<1) is essential as mitigation (R0>1, “flattening the curve”) results in massive hospital overload and many dead. BUT 1/3 (review attached)
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
BUT: Resurgent outbreaks is wrong. They ignore Contact Tracing. After a few weeks of lockdown infectious people are identified, contacts are isolated and can't infect. In China cases are down to 1 yesterday except for imported international travelers that are quarantined 2/3
Focusing on details but missing fundamentally important aspects makes for bad policy advice. When lives are at stake science must have higher standards. 3/3

Link to our review:
necsi.edu/review-of-ferg…
Read 3 tweets
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Yaneer Bar-Yam
@yaneerbaryam
BREAKING: Coronvirus Outbreak. One week after Italy's national lockdown (8 days after the north), Italy has three days with same number of new cases. This means 5 days after lockdown cases leveled off, consistent with typical incubation period of 3-5 days. This is good news.
Europe is closing in on Italy. Several countries moving to national lockdowns, so we can hope for stabilization in 5 days. Those that delay, will suffer longer.

Spain with national lockdown. France locking down Paris. Switzerland not yet. Germany still waiting for something.
Other EU countries report local transmission

Iran reported 1,289, 1,365, 1,209 last three days. Recent trend only has today as a decline, need to see what's next.

Singapore 31 new yesterday, 17 today, records.
Malasia totals jumped 238 -> 553
Russia totals jumped 34 -> 63
Read 5 tweets
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Yaneer Bar-Yam
@yaneerbaryam
Doctors should be diagnosing Coronavirus based upon medical principles including history, physical exam, lab tests and imaging, and isolating/treating conservatively, and not waiting for the scarce tests. They can confirm later. @cdipaola62 @hjluks
Severe cases, being predominantly tested now, are almost certain and going to be treated anyway. Focus tests on the cases that are most ambiguous. (This can be derived fron information theory: use tests that provide the most information). Testing can confirm other cases later.
More precise: Perform tests that influence impactful decisions / outcomes the most (Conditional information).
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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AFP news agency
@AFP
#BREAKING Millions could die if virus allowed to spread unchecked, says UN chief
#BREAKING US coronavirus cases now over 10,000, more than 150 dead, according to tracker
#BREAKING Italy overtakes China's #coronavirus death toll: AFP tally
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AFP news agency
@AFP
#BREAKING Iran reports 49 new coronavirus deaths, raising toll to 194
#BREAKING Iran Air says suspending Europe flights indefinitely
#BREAKING Pope voices support for virus victims in first livestream prayer
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Arab News
@arabnews
#BREAKING: Kuwait announces new coronavirus case, bringing total to 62 arab.news/64475
#BREAKING: Bahrain says its Formula One race this month will be for ‘participants only’ without spectators over #coronavirus fears arab.news/64475
Bahrain’s Crown Prince @PrinceSalmanbi3 says the decision to close this month’s Bahrain Formula One race to the public was ‘to preserve the safety of citizens, residents and racing fans,’ as #coronavirus #COVID_19 continues to spread arab.news/m7a46
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Heshmat Alavi
@HeshmatAlavi
#BREAKING
1)
 MP from Rasht, N #Iran on #CoronaVirus:
"True numbers are not provided... Stats reported so far are still not real... We can't hide the cemeteries. We have reports showing horrific numbers that cannot be concealed... True stats are far higher than official stats."
2)
 MP from Rasht, N #Iran
"It was wrong to not quarantine cities... The Supreme National Security Council & other high entities were against quarantining cities... Political prisoners & other inmates should be provided furlough to relieve concern about their lives."
#CoronaVirus
3)
 The Supreme National Security Council is headed by Iranian regime president Hassan Rouhani (right).
Furthermore, regime dictator Ali Khamenei (left) has the final word on all state matters.
Read 5 tweets
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AFP news agency
@AFP
#BREAKING South Korea biggest #coronavirus centre outside China, 161 new cases
#UPDATE South Korea reports 161 more #coronavirus cases, taking the nationwide total to 763 and making it the world's largest total outside China

u.afp.com/3U8Z
#BREAKING China reports 150 more virus deaths
Read 31 tweets
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Heshmat Alavi
@HeshmatAlavi
#BREAKING
Initial tests confirm two cases of the Corona virus in the city of Qom, central #Iran.

The regime has been keeping a lid on all reports of Corona cases in Iran, fearing concerns will prevent people from taking part in Friday's parliamentary elections.
Reminder:
#Iran's Deputy Minister for Roads & Transportation said Mahan Air (affiliated to the IRGC) "has been allowed a limited number of flights" to China despite a general government ban on flights to prevent a coronavirus outbreak in the country.
en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-s-sanct…
#BREAKING
Report:
-At least four suspicious deaths in Greater Tehran prison. Other inmates told they have brain meningitis.
-Numerous prisoners quarantined in a room. Other inmates told they have influenza. Signs indicate a suspicious illness that could be the Coronavirus.
Read 11 tweets

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