All day today people wondered why I was so worked up about disproving—with tons of data—Trump's false claim that the case fatality rate for coronavirus will end up well under 1%. I said that his misinformation is dangerous. And now someone has tragically died from it. I feel ill.
Some data I didn't discuss earlier: in the largest data-set yet, China, the closed-case CFR is 4.29%. Even if—as some say—50% of cases are asymptomatic and don't end up in the pool, the CFR would still be 2.15%. We don't have enough data yet, no—but have no reason to trust Trump.
Worth remembering, too—and oddly, Trump is keen on reminding us of this, albeit for different reasons—there are so many seasonal flu deaths, with few tested post-mortem, that we're almost certainly counting some coronavirus deaths as seasonal flu deaths. That'll remain an issue.
In South Korea, the CFR is 1.24% and rising. They've also been testing more than anywhere but Iceland—so we can't play the "50% aren't even being tested" game quite as easily. But even if we did, it'd be a 0.62% CFR—rising daily. And South Korea is the world's best-case scenario.
Elsewhere—like the US—the official mortality rate (deaths over closed cases) is so high I won't even mention it, but even if you modify that method to calculate deaths over "active cases 10 days ago" (to allow for the course of the illness) you get a 10% CFR (still 5%—!—halved).
My point is, a final observed CFR and estimated CFR won't be possible until *after* the pandemic—and there are surely some who guess the final estimated (not observed or "confirmed") CFR could drop below 1%—but none of the *present* data suggest it. And Trump *cannot* be trusted.
