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1/7 What is the max daily number of incident #COVIDー19 cases a healthcare system could manage?

@vasilepi @BreslowDay @mattwrkntn @BogochIsaac and I made an interactive tool modelling the capacity of acute and critical care resources during the pandemic: caic-rt.shinyapps.io/CAIC-RT/?utm_s…
2/7 The tool determines the max daily number of incident #COVIDー19 cases where the rate of #COVIDー19 patients being admitted to acute care, critical care or requiring mechanical ventilation ("patients in") equals the max daily turnover rate of those resources ("patients out").
3/7 Data from the @CDCgov @CDCMMWR on age-based case distribution and severity (cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…) are used to estimate the population-weighted proportion of #COVIDー19 patients requiring acute and critical care resources ("patients in").
4/7 Emerging published data on the clinical course of #COVIDー19 are used to estimate the average length of acute and critical care resource utilization for #COVIDー19 patients ("patients out").

References:
1. thelancet.com/journals/lance… (@TheLancet)

2. thelancet.com/journals/lanre…
5/7 Finally, the health care system inputs the number of acute and critical care resources available to support #COVIDー19.

Available resources include the proportion of existing resources maximally available to manage #COVIDー19 patients plus any additional surge capacity.
6/7 As a demonstration we calculated the max daily number of incident #COVIDー19 cases which could be managed by the Ontario healthcare system (numbers in the figure below).

On March 23rd there were 78 incident #COVIDー19 cases in the province of Ontario: ontario.ca/page/2019-nove…
7/7 The #COVIDー19 Acute and Intensive Care Resource Tool (CAIC-RT) is available here: caic-rt.shinyapps.io/CAIC-RT/?utm_s…

All default parameters are intentionally modifiable.

A manuscript has been submitted to a peer-reviewed journal and will be posted shortly on @medrxivpreprint server.
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Thomas Wood 🌊
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Before we start taking drastic measures in response to the #coronavirus, let us ask ourselves: Can we believe the #COVID-19 statistics being reported out of China? 1/53
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