To know what's going to happen, and not be panicked or caught by surprise by the human and commercial toll, understand this. Coronavirus testing in the US is far behind what Italy did, yet the expectation is that results will be better because "best health care in the world."
This is the next thing to be in denial about. First it was that the disease is seriously contagious. So there was no point "panicking people" (and devaluing the assets of the oligarchy). Now that the markets are tanked and the economy on ice, the agenda is to go back to business.
The next delusional narrative is to assume that there will be a few deaths ("old people"), the virus can be curbed in a couple of weeks and debt-fuelled consumerism can resume as if nothing happened. This nonsense is supported by naive empiricists extrapolating the Italian data.
A couple of weeks from now, there will be a crude awakening, but still more time will be needed to defeat this narrative. Why? Because the testing that's now rolling out across America will, as hospitals become overwhelmed, be denied yet again because there are too many infected.
People will die and, at least initially, they will not be tested or recorded as victims of the wuhan. Don't take this as some grand conspiracy. But the corporatists and their naive-empiricist lackeys will use it to support the narrative that everything is wonderful.
As with the global contagion and hospitals' coming under strain, there will be a point when there are too many dead to ignore, and the naive empircists and their data models become irrelevant.
You will see some of this dialectic unfold in Italy first. It's happening already.
You will see some of this dialectic unfold in Italy first. It's happening already.
Last couple of days, Italian doctors started limiting coronavirus tests to people with severe symptoms. The naive empiricists, accordingly, started taking victory laps that the lockdowns in Italy are working and new cases are dropping off dramatically.
The reality is different.
The reality is different.
The Italian lockdowns were very late in the game, and compliance with them even later.
This is one of Italy's top political leaders taking a stroll with the woman, not 10 ago. Some social distancing indeed. And "masks don't work", of course.
This is one of Italy's top political leaders taking a stroll with the woman, not 10 ago. Some social distancing indeed. And "masks don't work", of course.
There's still more hidden contagion in Italy, people dying in their homes, and more people about to hit the hospitals. Coronavirus deaths are far from peaking, but the naive empiricists won't know that without the testing. They will genuinely think Italy's measures are working.
That's what happens when "thinking" is really just a narrative pacifier, and you're clueless about where data come from.
There will be volatility in Italian deaths and new cases, but a week from now people will be "surprised" how many deaths and how high the death rates are.
There will be volatility in Italian deaths and new cases, but a week from now people will be "surprised" how many deaths and how high the death rates are.
There is too much noise in the data and too little information on the ground. After all, Italy is supposedly on lockdown. So it's hard to tell the extent of the healthcare system collapse. However, it's all but certain that things will get much uglier before they get better.
An even worse version of this same dynamic is unfolding in the United States because of the lack of testing. Even concerned policymakers are underestimating the extent of the spread, while hospitals in many parts of the country have been beyond panic mode for days and weeks.
Every day I hear horror stories about nurses forced to work without basic PPE. Or medical workers recycling face masks.
Few people get at this stage that the contagion has already spread among healthcare personnel
In 2-3 weeks, Spain and Italy will sound like child's play.
Few people get at this stage that the contagion has already spread among healthcare personnel
In 2-3 weeks, Spain and Italy will sound like child's play.
The naive empiricists extrapolating the Italian data will be telling you that, although thousands of people are dying daily, the contagion has peaked and it's okay to get back to work to "save the economy".
You can set up makeshift hospitals, import ventilators, print masks.
You can set up makeshift hospitals, import ventilators, print masks.
You can't print doctors and nurses.
The lockdowns across the US must be tightened and enforced. Commercial air traffic should be shut down. The measures should be held in place untill mass testing and tracking is finally available.
Only then can there be business to "save".
The lockdowns across the US must be tightened and enforced. Commercial air traffic should be shut down. The measures should be held in place untill mass testing and tracking is finally available.
Only then can there be business to "save".
