Thread by @startupdaemon

What do we REALLY know about the Wuhan #coronavirus?

Let’s cut through the lies and disinformation, and quickly recap what we really know about the coronavirus from the doctors on the frontline and from medical research.

It's a lot more than you think.

/thread/

The current case fatality rate (CFR) for #coronavirus is 6%. For every 100 closed cases of coronavirus, six people have died globally.

That makes it 60x deadlier than the flu, which kills 0.1% of those diagnosed.

1/n

The coronavirus is extremely contagious. Some estimates for R0 range up to 8 or even 9. That’s 6x the contagiousness of the flu.

Multiply 60x the mortality times 5-6x the contagiousness and you get that coronavirus can kill more than 300x what the flu does every year.

2/n

The #coronavirus has a long incubation period – up to 4 weeks and over.

Asymptomatic carriers can spread it via both droplets and aerosols.

3/n

15-20% of those diagnosed with #coronavirus have serious complications.

5-10% require intensive care, especially ventilators.

4/n

#Coronavirus treatment is complex and case-specific, particularly for people with pre-existing conditions.

There's no clear evidence that anyone has been cured conclusively or has developed immunity to the virus.

That some have “recovered” or been discharged means nothing.

5/n

The most recent genetic research shows the #coronavirus has already mutated into a more aggressive strain that is both deadlier and more contagious.

6/n

Seasonality is just wishful thinking and isn't going to solve anything.

The #coronavirus is already spreading widely in countries like Malaysia, Thailand and Egypt.

The spread is also growing in the southern hemisphere, where it's still high summer.

7/n

There are no cures or vaccines.

Don’t pay attention to boolsheat – a working vaccine will take at least 18 months to mass-produce.

There is no guarantee whatsoever that there will ever be a vaccine (40 years after its discovery, there's still no vaccine for HIV).

8/n

Testing for #coronavirus is extremely unreliable. Patients must be tested repeatedly and over time for credible results.

Obviously sick patients test negative again and again before returning a positive test. There still aren't antibody tests.

9/n

Infection with #coronavirus can cause various complications even in young and “healthy” people.

The disease has been shown to damage the lungs, kidneys, liver, testes, central nervous system and heart muscle, resulting in the “sudden death” of discharged patients.

10/n

Even mild and asymptomatic cases can result in permanent organ damage and death, which makes the wuhan extremely treacherous.

Public institutions such as prisons, retirement homes, schools and hospitals are fertile breeding grounds for infection.

11/n

Governments are unprepared to deal with the pandemic. There is a mix of incredulous denial and outright lying to the public, especially in the United States.

Lots of medical workers will die unnecessarily because of the lying and complacency. You’re on your own.

12/n

Hospital systems can’t handle the inflow of infected. They are understaffed, undersupplied and unprepared. Medical personnel are working unprotected.

This means that other diseases will soon be crowded out. Cross-infections are becoming common.

13/n

Epidemiologists have said the #coronavirus can infect 70% of the population of the planet.

If the mortality rate is just 3%, that means 170,000,000 people will die.

That’s more than 3x the number of people the Spanish flu killed.

14/n

The time to prepare has long passed and has been wasted.

Singapore and South Korea are the only countries which have managed to contain the virus somewhat.

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