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*ECB IS SAID TO BE BROADLY IN FAVOR OF ACTIVATING OMT IF NEEDED

OMT = Open Market Transactions.

Germany has resisted this forever, fearing this is the ECB going "full Weimar." So, the ECB does TLTROs

(1/3)
"Broadly in favor" is taken to mean that Germany is now in favor of the ECB's version of "unlimited QE."

This the Bazooka that the ECB has never fired, but now appears to be loading.

(2/3)
Germany is the sound money adult at the ECB. They looking at two bad options

OMT = Print and buy bonds like mad.
EU starts issuing Corona-bonds to pay for the bailouts.

Germany's thinking ... OMT can be reversed in the future. Corona-bonds will live forever.

(3/3)
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Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
Covid-19 charts

The US passed China and Italy to become #1 in infections. Still #6 in deaths (John Hopkins Data)

(1/6)
Rest of World (x-China). Still making new daily highs (bottom panel)

(2/6)
United States, Also making new daily highs

(3/6)
Read 6 tweets
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Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
ICE BofA Merrill will NOT rebalance their fixed-income indices on March 31.

images.e.theice.com/Web/IDC/%7B6ae…

Same with some (but not all) equities indices

theice.com/market-data/in…

(1/3)
The securities moves (decline) this month have been so extreme that they are afraid a rebalancing will force trillions of indexed and passive money to "adjust" their portfolios.

(2/3)
The dealers weakened position and "full" balance sheets mean they are not in a position to handle this onslaught of trades.

So, they will put it off until April 30.

Another example of how historic these moves have been.

Expect Bloomberg indices to do the same.

(3/3)
Read 3 tweets
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Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
Table is top 20 gains/losses since 1926. 6 days in March made it! (red)

Today' S&P impressive rally, up 9.38%, is the best since the March 13 rally of 9.29%! (last week!)

Mar 14-23, the S&P was crushed for another 17.44% in losses. The worst 6 days after a top 20 day.

(1/5)
Here is the what happens after the 20 best days in history (table above). The thick black line is the average.

70% of the time the stock market is lower 100 days later, by and average of 18%.

(2/5)
I'm always asked "after this <fill in the blank> price move, what happens next?"

99% I don't bother answering as the result is always this same, nothing significant.

These massive one day rallies are the exception. They are the very definition of a bear market rally.

(3/5)
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Sébastien Cochard
@SebCochard_11
@ecb Amount is very big. However the #ECB is very wishy-washy on what is currently crucial:
“For the purchases of public sector securities, the benchmark allocation across jurisdictions will continue to be the capital key of the national central banks” 1/
@ecb Meaning that they will continue to buy mainly German bonds, which is not needed, while not buying massively, over the 33% limit, Italian and Greek bonds, which are going astray since the misstep of #Lagarde last week
@ecb But at the same time:
“To the extent that some self-imposed limits might hamper action that the #ECB is required to take in order to fulfil its mandate, the Governing Council will consider revising them (etc)”
Meaning that they can change mind and focus on Italian & Greek bonds
Read 5 tweets
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Arash Kolahi
@ArashKolahi
On Friday I wrote a thread explaining why the Fed’s recent liquidity injections (~$5 TRILLION since January) amounts to a ‘hand-out’ to the financial markets that largely benefits the 1%.

Here I’ll explain EXACTLY why it’s a HAND-OUT that you & I will end up paying for. 1/31
When the Fed partakes in open market transactions, including repo markets, it’s considered monetary policy. It’s a large part of what they do.

When they buy debt, it’s expansionary monetary policy because they are increasing the money supply – putting out dollars/liquidity. 2/31
This is non-controversial as it was their stated purpose: to provide more liquidity.

These open market transactions took place in the Repurchase Agreement (Repo) market. The Repo market is an open market that provides short term liquidity to banks & financial institutions. 3/31
Read 32 tweets
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Nuno Rafael Gomes 🌱
@nrgomes
A thread about how well #China is playing the international game to become the most prominent economy in this decade, by @swardley.
@swardley Some key points about #China's long-run #strategy:

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Xy5Z89🇩🇪
@Xy5Z89
#Germany #Bundestag #Hezbollah

On Thursday, December 19, 2019, the @Bundestag voted on three proposals that deal with the #Lebanese organization "#Hezbollah". A joint application was accepted by the CDU/CSU, SPD and FDP with the title
"Effective action against #Hezbollah" (19/16046) while abstaining from the other three parliamentary groups.

However, an application by Alliance 90 / The Greens entitled "Strictly enforce a #ban on #Hezbollah and break up its networks in #Germany, #assist #Israel,
support #civil #society in #Lebanon" (19/16050) was #rejected. In addition to the Greens, some members of the Left Group voted in favor of the #bill, but the vast majority of the Left abstained.
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Henrik Zeberg
@HenrikZeberg
#ECB is likely to crash EUR in attempt to stimulate EU-economy🤦‍♂️(incompetence in ECB is staggering!). Wait for waterfall moment in #EURUSD. Currently flirting with LT-trendline. Target 0.85-0.91 #HZupdates
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Rally in #USD will push #Gold (#XAUUSD) into major decline in final wave C, which will take yellow pet rock below 1000 USD. Imo no way that structure of rally since 2015 is new Bull market. It is ZigZag-correction topping ~1480 (here!) or ~1590 (-1600). Major Bull trap #HZupdates
Read 8 tweets
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Ahmed Jehani
@AhmedMJehani
Twitter Thread - #NewStartforLibya

Ladies and gentlemen, the political and economic situation in #Libya today makes life hard for everyone, for #Libyans, our neighbours and the rest of the world. But we may still have hope that this can change.
I tweet today, not as a representative of any institution, faction or interest group but as someone who only wants the best for Libya; and #Libya surely deserves much better than she has had for the last fifty or so years.
I want to give you a summary of ideas that I have been developing for some time with a group of friends, professionals and academics which has become something of an informal think-tank.
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