"This is not a competition to see what you can get away with," @GovofCO Polis says of Colorado's statewide stay-home order. "The contest is to see who can best comply with the spirit of this." #9NEWS #covid19colorado
"It's not that we're looking at you. We're looking at how the collective efforts contain the spread of the virus," Polis said, calling the stay-home order an "urgent competition."
Gov Polis says it is "really dumb" to drive to the mountains to a second-home or cabin because those communities have a higher rate of COVID-19 than the Front Range. #9NEWS #COVID19Colorado
Governor Polis says the current R0 of the virus (measure of contagiousness) in Colorado is a 3 or 4, meaning one infected person will infect 3 or 4 others. The WHO says the R0 in China was 2-2.5. #9NEWS #COVID19Colorado
Polis is dropping detailed statistics on COVID-19 in Colorado that we'd been seeking. Onset to ICU admission: 10-12 days. Average ICU stay: 8 days.
NERD STUFF: Polis says tracking cell phone GPS metadata shows that closing schools/restaurants/bars/ski areas reduced social interaction by 40-60%. Stay-home order's impact being measured. Polis says he hopes it'll be an 80% reduction. #9NEWS #COVID19Colorado
NEW: Gov Polis says impact of stay-home order should be measurable by April 2. References old hockey analogy of skating to where the puck will be, not where it is.
NEW: Gov Polis says Colorado has 1,849 ICU beds with 1/2 available for COVID-19 patients. Goal to add 1,000 by May, 5,000 more by this summer. #9NEWS #COVID19Colorado
Gov Polis says hospitals have aggressively reduced the number of full ICU beds from 80% to 50% to make room for COVID-19 patients (reducing elective surgeries, etc).
NEW: Gov Polis says peak ICU demand without distancing would be 13,800 by end of April. (1,849 available). Polis says with 60% social distancing, ICU bed demand would be reduced to 4,500 at a later peak in June.
NEW: Gov Polis says estimates show 33,200 deaths in Colorado with no social distancing. With 40% distancing: 26, 000 deaths. 60% distancing: 11,500 deaths. (estimated R0 of 4). #9NEWS #covid19colorado
NEW: Gov Polis says if COVID-19 has an R0 of 3 (measure of contagiousness), CU estimates show 23,000 deaths without social distancing. With 40% distancing: 1,600. 60% distancing: 400 deaths. #9NEWS #covid19colorado
(trying my best to accurately convey this new CU research as Polis flies through a deck of info - all of it new modeling that we haven't seen. we'll ask the Gov's office for the full deck so you can review it yourself)
Obviously, none of this is a revelation for those who have been listening to infectious disease epidemiologists instead of shouting about a Gestapo-like mentality and Colorado being a police state. It's useful that this modeling data is being shared publicly.
R0 measures how many people one infected person will pass the virus to. An R0 of 3 means one person infects three others.
"I'd like to have an extra ventilator rather than one too few," @GovofCO Polis says in one of the great statements of the obvious of all time.
Correct. Worse than China's 2-2.5 (per WHO). Gov Polis said that is the current estimated R0 in Colorado right now based on the limited testing/tracking/modeling available.
wash your hands
The data-rich presentation from @GovofCO Polis makes it clear what health experts have been saying, just with Colorado-specific modeling: YOUR. CHOICES. MATTER. The CU modeling suggests Colorado can bend the curve and save lives.
if car crashes were contagious and car crash victims were overwhelming hospitals, we would probably talk about it
Gov Polis says college dorms could be repurposed as step-down facilities for people who don't need acute care but need to be isolated.
Colorado law requires the government get a warrant for cell phone location information from individual devices but not from service providers. Here's the law: leg.state.co.us/Clics/CLICS201…
"The best way to get through this is to succeed at stay at home for the next few weeks," Polis said. "If we can do that, Colorado can be at the forefront of ... economic recovery."
"No employer is exempt from this (stay-home) order," Polis said. Reinforced that social distancing and splitting up shifts if possible is required.
NEW: @GovofCO Polis is fiery when asked about the cost. Says $$$ for hospital beds and ventilators are a "rounding error" compared to the economic costs of COVID-19. Says if they end up with extra medical supplies and the state opens for business one day earlier, it's worth it.
i'll bring that up with the governor to see if he's considered that
Polis says he's urging people to get outdoor activity inside their own communities rather than travelling to do it. Asks people to reduce their outdoor activities during the stay-home order as well. "This is not a vacation," Polis said.
Polis says cell phone GPS data being used to track social distancing is the aggregate data that has been commercially available for years and does not include personally-identifiable information.
in a minute, pamela, i'm working
Absolutely. I've already asked the Gov's team for the full slide deck and details on the CU modeling.
Perhaps your TV was off. I watched it on 9NEWS.
We're getting daily calls from employees who want 9NEWS to name and shame their employer for forcing non-essential personnel to work in the office. Sounds like the state's patience is running thin.
The most critical question to come out of @GovofCO briefing: If COVID-19 has an R0 of 3-4, as modeled, that is a sh!tstorm of massive proportions. As @chrisvanderveen says, how did researchers end up at that number if our testing/trakcing is so weak?
I think this is the end of the thread. Need to get ready to join you for @nexton9news at 6pm. Big question remains how CU researchers ended up with the bonkers R0 of 3-4 in Colorado. Will be asking for specifics. Thanks for reading, everyone.
Here is the slide deck presented by Gov Polis: drive.google.com/file/d/1HyMnIi…
