This is a REALLY good explanation (but not an epidemiological model) of infection spread and the potential effect of different measures.
It also spells out the second (& more waves without swift identification & isolation)
Simulating an epidemic - YouTube
It also spells out the second (& more waves without swift identification & isolation)
Simulating an epidemic - YouTube
H/T @EuropeanRover for drawing it to my attention.
A personal set of examples that illustrate points made here.
6 members of my family have got COVID.
All recovering. 4 in their 30s/40s. Two under 10 yrs old.
The “starter” for 5 of the 6 seems likely to be school.
A personal set of examples that illustrate points made here.
6 members of my family have got COVID.
All recovering. 4 in their 30s/40s. Two under 10 yrs old.
The “starter” for 5 of the 6 seems likely to be school.
1 was a teacher. Likely Picked it up whilst at school.
So far her husband is not showing symptoms. (But is he asymptomatic?). Both isolating. Adult children not at home.
So far her husband is not showing symptoms. (But is he asymptomatic?). Both isolating. Adult children not at home.
Then there is a family of four. Started with a school age son bringing it back from school. Little sister got it. Both v mild symptoms. Quick recovery.
But both parents caught it from them. More severe and the Male worse than the female. All isolated and recovered at home.
But both parents caught it from them. More severe and the Male worse than the female. All isolated and recovered at home.
Finally my nephew in his 30s.
He’s been working from home for 3 weeks.
First 10 days no problem
Only outings for a run every day and to work on his allotment
And one visit to Waitrose to shop.
A few days later COVID symptoms appear. Unpleasant but only interrupted 1 work day
He’s been working from home for 3 weeks.
First 10 days no problem
Only outings for a run every day and to work on his allotment
And one visit to Waitrose to shop.
A few days later COVID symptoms appear. Unpleasant but only interrupted 1 work day
So one visit to a community hub and maybe touching the face tying home to thoroughly wash his hands etc resulted in a COVID infection.
All recovered at home. None will be in the CV19 stats.
One may have been asymptomatic.
Who knows who else.
All recovered at home. None will be in the CV19 stats.
One may have been asymptomatic.
Who knows who else.
And that is the real risk behind the second wave. People who feel fine or who don’t quarantine scrupulously .
We don’t have quarantine centres as did China, S Korea & Singapore
Interesting Singapore’s testing for the first month was v limited facing towards external threats
We don’t have quarantine centres as did China, S Korea & Singapore
Interesting Singapore’s testing for the first month was v limited facing towards external threats
But early identification and isolation reduced fatalities and also pressure on ICU beds.
Without getting the testing and isolation infrastructure in place then a second wave is likely to be a rinse and repeat.
And we don’t know who is immune yet.
Without getting the testing and isolation infrastructure in place then a second wave is likely to be a rinse and repeat.
And we don’t know who is immune yet.
