Thread by @YossiGestetner

Cuomo said early last week he expects apex in NY to be in 14-21 days (April 6-13). At that point he said NY will need 125K beds for Coronavirus including 30K ICU. Hopsitals are stretched thin as is so stay home and distance/gloves when out. But needing 30,000 ICU beds all at once

on April 6, means the following added ICU usages per day:

500 on 3/28 (3K total)

1,000 on 3/29 (4K total)

1,500 on 3/30 (5,500)

2,000 on 3/31 (7,500)

2,500 on 4/1 (10K)

3,000 on 4/2 (13K)

3,500 on 4/3 (16,500)

4,000 on 4/4 (20,500)

4,500 on 4/5 (25K)

5,000 on 4/6 (30K)

NY had 2,037 ICU Coronavirus cases by 3/28; not 3,000 and they are not all at once. Also, the ICU count in NY went up by

172 on 3/27

282 on 3/28.

This is way slower than what was anticipated a week ago even with a lockdown. Again, some NY hospitals are melting but this is

happening when NY has merely 7,500 hospitalizations and 2,000 ICU cases, but melting does not equal the predictions, and the predictions not coming close to materializing does not = that this is a joke. It just means the main focus weeks ago should have been hospital capacity!

Thurs 3/12: NY bans gatherings above 500.

Sun 3/15: Gatherings cut to 50; schools ordered closed for Mon

Mon-Thursdsy: Companies ordered to cut at-office staff to 50%, 25% and 0%.

Thursday 8 PM: Malls above 100K SF closed.

Sun 3/22 at 8 PM: Non-essential businesses shut.

Monday 3/23: Cuomo expects that apex in NY will be in 14-21 days (April 6-13) and needs 125K more beds; 30K more ICU beds.

At the time, NY has a hospitalization rate of 12.5% and 3% ICU. Meaning, if NY has 1 million cases at once, it will need 125K hospital beds; 30K ICU beds.

Wednesday April 1: Cuomo says we now expect the Apex to reach by the end of April “which means another month of this.” For those holding track, we were told last week Monday that apex will be in 14-21 days which would be April 6-13 and a need of 30K ICU beds at once in that week.

Surprised that NY will not need 30K ICU beds by April 6-13 contrary to what we were told early last week? Read my tweets from a week ago today. The numbers were not close to being there! Course correction by the model makers? No. They simply moved the Apex to the end of April.

As tweeted 3 days ago, for NY to use 30K ICU beds all at once by April 6th, the New/Added ICU use would need to be 5,000 in the four days of March 28-31 and jump by a FEW THOUSAND A DAY into April 6.

It was 1,367 new ICU’s

282 Sat 3/28

315 Sun 3/29

367 Mon 3/30

303 Tues 3/31

“Yossi, hospitals in NYC are breaking.” Yes, I get calls/emails daily. But NYC area hospitals are melting with just a fraction of “30K ICUs beds by April 6.” Therefore, we don’t need clown math (which the state dumped today inline with my tweets from 3-7 days ago) to up capacity!

A week ago, @IHME_UW’s model showed that NY will need 10,839 ICUE beds by today. The number for yesterday is 3,396!

The model is off on the dark side by 320% a week out! NY made NO new major lockdown changes since before the model. The WH is using these clowns to set policy!

When panic-spreaders are asked why their numbers never turn out to be what predicted (Corona is an issue so pls do stay home BTW), they say “well, the lockdown helped” BUT HELLO. The doomsday “models” are released/updated way after those lockdowns, yet they are still WAY OFF!

Hospitalizations run 2 weeks after exposure; ICU probably longer, so when IHME expected a week ago that NY will need 10,800 ICU beds by today, it was based on behavior in the range of March 12-19 when NY was more open than shut. The later shutdowns should not affect April 2 much,

yet they are way off. “They” being the entity that Dr. Birx relied on at the WH 2 days ago. At what point do WH leaders and @whca members demand answers from those clowns? Their models estimating how bad things are with little distancing, overshoots times over the real thing!

Let me stress that NY hospitals can’t handle a fraction of the doomsday “model” case count so we do need to stop the spread and up capacity to care. But se can do it without relying on clowns whose estimates are off a week out (while Yossi here was way more accurate a week out.)

3 days ago, @realDonaldTrump announced that all of April will be in a lockdown based on the recommendation of Dr. Fauci who relies on a modal that leans heavy on NY. But this model got NY wrong to the doomsday side by 310% a mere week out. Last week Wed to yesterday Wednesday.

Do you know how many “in two weeks from now” have already gone by?

“But Yossi. It didn’t get there because of the lockdowns.”

Come here 🦜

They updated their projections that took the lockdowns into account but those updated moments are always 1-2 weeks away.