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1. The Taliban released a statement accusing the Afghan government & U.S. of violating the Feb. withdrawal agreement. The Taliban notes (correctly) that nothing in the accord prohibited them from continuing to launch attacks, but the group says it's focused mainly on rural areas.
2. U.S. military and diplomatic officials claimed in a series of statements that the agreement called for a "reduction of violence," but that phrase isn't in the accord, nor is there anything similar. It is an example of wishcasting:

longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/…
3. @billroggio has been collating the Taliban's claimed attacks since the Feb. 29 withdrawal agreement went into effect. The Taliban claimed 405 attacks in the first 24 days. See here:

longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/…
4. The Feb. 29 agreement wasn't necessary to withdraw American forces from Afghanistan. It is an incredibly weak and lopsided deal - in the Taliban's favor. It granted the Taliban some significant concessions in return for little or even nothing:
thedispatch.com/p/no-deal-is-b…
5. According to @SecPompeo, the main alleged benefit of the deal is that the Taliban is going to break with & even "destroy" al-Qaeda. The deal doesn't say that. Moreover, the Taliban has yet to renounce AQ, let alone betray its longtime jihadi brethren more than one month out.
6. @SecPompeo & @US4AfghanPeace sold the Taliban's supposed counterterrorism assurances as the main benefit of the deal for Americans. But there are no verification or enforcement mechanisms for those same assurances. How was the Taliban's compliance supposed to be monitored?
7. So now we have a situation in which the Taliban is accusing the U.S. & Afghan government of failing to comply with a deal that asked little to nothing from the Taliban itself. This is one reason, out of many, why no deal was always better than a bad deal.
8. @USFOR_A has responded to the Taliban's statement. But again, there's nothing in the Feb. 29 withdrawal agreement calling for a "reduction in violence." Read it for yourself here:
state.gov/wp-content/upl…

@USFOR_A response to Taliban today:
9. The Taliban again refers to itself as the "Islamic Emirate" in its statement.

One erroneous premise underlying the deal is that the Taliban would be willing to give up its quest to resurrect its totalitarian Islamic Emirate. A mountain of evidence says that's not true.
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Thomas Joscelyn
@thomasjoscelyn
1. Omar Saeed Sheikh planned the kidnapping of Daniel Pearl, who was then murdered by al-Qaeda. Now his convictions were overturned.

One can only hope the U.S. is tracking this story (even with everything else going on) and making a determination on the proper response.
2. According to media reports, the Pakistani court didn't find that Omar Saeed Sheikh was innocent or wrongly convicted of kidnapping Pearl. Instead, related charges were dropped and the kidnapping charge was reduced.
3. This story always had ramifications for our understanding of al-Qaeda, its close relations with other jihadist groups inside Pakistan, and the role played by (elements of) the Pakistani military and intelligence establishment.
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Thomas Joscelyn
@thomasjoscelyn
1. There’s a lot more to say about the State Department’s deal with the Taliban. But I’ll say this: If the Taliban does what @SecPompeo says they’ll do - “work alongside of us to destroy, deny resources to and have al-Qaida depart from that place” - we will hear about it from AQ.
2. But the text of the agreement doesn’t call for what Pompeo told @CBSNews this AM. It says the Taliban won’t allow Al Qaeda to threaten the US from Afghan soil. This isn’t new, contrary to Pompeo’s claim, they’ve long made similar statements - and they were lies.
3. Keep in mind that al-Qaeda, Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and other AQ-affiliated groups are embedded throughout the Taliban insurgency. So to do what Pompeo says, the Taliban would really have to betray AQ in a way that would be noticeable.
Read 8 tweets
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Thomas Joscelyn
@thomasjoscelyn
1. If Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is in fact dead, it's a good time to reflect on the fact that the ISIS caliphate declaration didn't come out of nowhere. Al Qaeda & its branches have long said they are fighting for a new caliphate. Bin Laden & Zawahiri stated this in the 1990s.
2. Baghdadi & his followers claimed to have achieved this goal in 2014, but the ISIS caliphate crumbled in the face of a US-led coalition. AQ's leaders repeatedly warned this would happen - which is why they've preached patience with respect to declaring emirates & governance.
3. Over the past year-plus, I've reviewed (again) hundreds of al Qaeda messages going back to the 1990s. Resurrecting the caliphate has been a dominant theme. It is even a key part of the contextual narrative in publications such as AQAP's Inspire. ISIS claimed to deliver.
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Laurel Miller
@LaurelMillerICG
THREAD on what's new in US-#Taliban deal signed today and in US-Islamic Republic of Afghanistan "Joint Declaration," and analysis of who got what. (Plus link to full texts.) 1/19 state.gov/agreement-for-…
Easy part first: There's nothing new in the Joint Declaration signed in Kabul today. It reaffirms existing commitments and it re-states some of US-Taliban agreement. It's purpose is evidently political symbolism - a US message of non-abandonment. 2/19
In small win for political opposition in Kabul, Declaration refers to "inclusive negotiating team of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan" for next stage of process -- the intra-Afghan negotiations. Debate will continue over whether govt leaders are being inclusive enough. 3/19
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Afghan Historians
@AfghanHistorian
(1/13) The power struggle within the State Dept. in fall 1996 had two factions: 1) the Afghan desk, under the South Asia Bureau run by Asst. Sec. Robin Raphel, whose members like Lee Coldren were not on board with the Admin's broader attempts to center women's rights as an
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Read 13 tweets
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Mariam Wardak
@MaroWardak
For the last few days, I’ve witnessed a social media war among #Afghan women. This appears to have started with my English interview on @WIONews but it seems few of the people who commented actually listened to my remarks. #Afghanistan
I was highlighting earlier statement of Gen. Ahmadzai, who claimed improper & corrupt practices at @ARG_AFG. His claims are vague, but worth investigating. Disappointed other female leaders in #Afghanistan reacted quickly w/blanket assurances that nothing of this sort happens.
I respect all women in the government and have been a supportive colleague to most of them. I’m saddened to see @AWNKabul behaving as though I was demeaning women in public service—obviously not my intention. Listening to my interview should have made that clear. #herAfghanistan
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Peter Wilding
@eurorealist
Farmers face the biggest Brexit hit and still they don’t think they need to worry! THREAD
In a grim report published on Friday, the #government Agricultural, Horticultural and Development Board @TheAHDB predicted that post-Brexit #farming incomes would fall by 25%. @FarmingUK /1
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Ghani Atif
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"We [#Taliban] don’t want the U.S. to leave Afghanistan the way Russians left. We have told them that after ending your military intervention, we will welcome U.S. engineers, doctors and others if they want to come back for reconstruction of #Afghanistan." - Abbas Stanikzai
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"It is impossible for us to engage in direct talks with the #Kabul administration until all U.S. and NATO troops pull out from #Afghanistan. We told them [U.S.] that the Kabul government is not legitimate and is the product of American military pressure."
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Joseph Stalin
@StalinIsBack
1/8 My favorite #quote by #JosephStalin, which explains the scientific, #DialecticalMaterialist explanation of true freedom in material reality, not just as an abstract ideal. #StalinIsBack #StalinLives #JVStalin #Stalin #StalinQuote #StalinQuotes #Truth #MELS #MarxismLeninism
2/8 Having an #objective, #rational, #ScientificSocialist, #Dialectical, & #Materialist viewpoint allows us to accurately see & evaluate & analyze #Truth & #Reality as they truly materially exist in this universe.
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