1. There’s a lot more to say about the State Department’s deal with the Taliban. But I’ll say this: If the Taliban does what @SecPompeo says they’ll do - “work alongside of us to destroy, deny resources to and have al-Qaida depart from that place” - we will hear about it from AQ.
2. But the text of the agreement doesn’t call for what Pompeo told @CBSNews this AM. It says the Taliban won’t allow Al Qaeda to threaten the US from Afghan soil. This isn’t new, contrary to Pompeo’s claim, they’ve long made similar statements - and they were lies.
3. Keep in mind that al-Qaeda, Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and other AQ-affiliated groups are embedded throughout the Taliban insurgency. So to do what Pompeo says, the Taliban would really have to betray AQ in a way that would be noticeable.
4. Asim Umar, the first emir of AQIS & a senior al-Qaeda leader, was killed in a joint US-Afghan raid on a Taliban stronghold in Musa Qala, Helmand in Sept 2019 - days after Pompeo first vouched for the Taliban’s willingness to break from AQ. The Taliban didn’t betray Umar.
5. So if you are actually interested in this, then you should be watching for Taliban betrayals of hundreds (at least) of AQ, AQIS and other terrorists (e.g. Pakistani Taliban) throughout Afghanistan - if Pompeo is right. If that doesn’t happen, then you’ll know something else.
6. To be clear: Pompeo is saying his deal with the Taliban calls for the biggest betrayal in jihadist history - a bigger betrayal, in my view, than ISIS’s turn on AQ. It would be wonderful for US national security, with ripple effects far outside of Afghanistan - if it happens.
7. But if it doesn’t happen, and again the text of the agreement that was released doesn’t call for this level of betrayal (not even close), then...well.
