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GnS Economics Profile picture
@GnSEconomics
Aug 27, 2020 โ€ข 4 tweets โ€ข 4 min read โ€ข Read on X
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท
Reverse recovery

"The economic rebound in major advanced economies is stalling or even reversing"
#US #Japan #Germany #France #Italy #Spain #UK #Canada #Sweden #SouthKorea #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ Image
#Norway Image
#China ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Image

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @GnSEconomics

GnS Economics Profile picture
Oct 5, 2020
September #PMI thread (August in brackets) 1/8
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ #Eurozone
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช #Germany
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท #France
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น #Italy
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ #Spain
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง #UK
+ Note on how to read PMI
#economy #recession
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Eurozone PMI 2/8

โ€œWith the eurozone economy having almost stalled in September, the chances of a renewed downturn in the fourth quarter have clearly risen"

Composite 50.4 (51.9)
Services 48.0 (50.5)
#Eurozone #PMI

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Prโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany PMI 3/8

"Growth in the German service sector slowed to a crawl in September, as the rebound in activity from the COVID-19 lockdown continued to lose steam"

Services 50.6 (52.5)
Composite 54.7 (54.4)
#Germany #PMI

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Prโ€ฆ
Read 8 tweets
GnS Economics Profile picture
Oct 1, 2020
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Eurozone #Manufacturing #PMI

#Eurozone manufacturing growth strongest for over two years, 53.7 (August 51.7)

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช #Germany 56.4
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น #Italy 53.2
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ #Netherlands 52.5
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น #Austria 51.7
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท #France 51.2
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ #Spain 50.8
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท #Greece 50.0
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช #Ireland 50.0

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Prโ€ฆ Image
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช #Germany #Manufacturing #PMI

Sharp increases in output and new orders at end of third
quarter. Job shedding slows, but stocks show further steep declines.

September Manufacturing PMI 56.4 (August 52.2)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Prโ€ฆ Image
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท #France #Manufacturing #PMI

Business conditions improve amid faster rise in
production. Fractionally quicker increase in new orders
supported by export growth.

September Manufacturing PMI 51.2 (August 49.8)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Prโ€ฆ Image
Read 8 tweets
GnS Economics Profile picture
Sep 24, 2020
September 2020 flash PMI in one thread, in following order

#US ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
#UK ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง
#EuroZone ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ
#Germany ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช
#France ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท
#Japan ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต
#Australia ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ

+Note on diffusion indexes like the purchasing managers indexes, or #PMIs.

#economy #recession #recovery
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ #US #PMI September 2020 (August)

Solid rise in private sector business activity in September

Composite Output 54.4 (54.6)
Services Business Activity 54.6 (55.0)
Manufacturing PMI 53.5 (53.1)
Manufacturing Output 53.3 (52.7)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Prโ€ฆ Image
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง #UK #PMI September 2020 (August)

Recovery loses momentum and business outlook drops to its weakest since May

Composite Output 55.7 (59.1)
Services Business Activity 55.1 (58.8)
Manufacturing Output 59.3 (61.0)
Manufacturing PMI 54.3 (55.2)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Prโ€ฆ Image
Read 9 tweets
GnS Economics Profile picture
Sep 4, 2020
BIS warns of Zombies
#recession #economy
"Zombie firmsโ€™ productivity declines as leverage rises"

The zombie share peaked in 2010 at 16% and declined in the subsequent recovery by a mere 2 percentage points. Since 2015 the share of zombie companies is already rising again

Probability of a zombie remaining a zombie in the following year rose to 85% in 2017
#recession #economy Image
Read 4 tweets
GnS Economics Profile picture
Aug 30, 2020
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Longer suspension on #insolvency filings masks credit risk that explodes into wave of #bankruptcies when the moratorium ends

Also nurtures zombie companies that hold back investment and innovation and act as a drain on the #economy
#Germany #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ Image
โ€œZombie companiesโ€ are not a new phenomenon

They restrict the entry of new, more productive companies, diminish job creation in the economy and lock capital into unproductive uses. In a word, they are a menace to the economy and society
#recession

gnseconomics.com/2019/03/11/theโ€ฆ
World economy will follow the โ€œWay of Japanโ€ ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต

Central bankers will take an active (in practice, permanent) role in the financial markets. The hope is that this would keep the global asset bubble inflated and the world economy going
#recession

gnseconomics.com/2019/03/18/theโ€ฆ
Read 4 tweets
GnS Economics Profile picture
Aug 25, 2020
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australiaโ€™s recession longest since 1982-83, unemployment remain elevated due to a tepid recovery

GDP 2020
Q1 -0.3%
Q2 -6%
Q3 -0.7%

Jobless rate
9% in 2020
8.8% in 2021
according to Commonwealth Bank of Australia
#Australia #recession #GDP

bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australian employment falls further, intensifying labor market stress

Government predicting unemployment to climb above 13% by the end of September, from a 22-year high of 7.5% in July.
#Australia #recession

uk.reuters.com/article/us-ausโ€ฆ
High household debt poses risk to spending

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australians racked up enormous debts as rising incomes and falling interest rates allowed them to take out larger mortgages to pursue escalating property prices
#Australia #debt #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ Image
Read 4 tweets

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