Thread by @DesoGames

Time for a BIG thread and for me to return to where i made my bones: #Covid19.

This time with a prediction that will end up hurting A Lot:

#Europe will stay in lockdown until March/April 2021. If it doesn't, the virus overwhelms hospitals and forces a lockdown anyway.

1/x (50)

First, some background, as i know many of you are new to the channel (Welcome!!) and to show i'm not "just some guy on twitter".

While you probably found me because of #silver or #Tether, I made my bones correctly predicting #Covid19 would turn pandemic.

Around January 11th 2/x

Before the Virus, i was trying to become an inventor. On the 7th of January, me and my Russian friend had just ended up with a quote of about 15k to build an app i designed - but we were broke.

The plan became for me to sell a small invention to raise capital for an alpha. 3/x

On January 9th i read about the Virus on @zerohedge, and by the 11th i told my friend that "All plans were on hold, this virus was the real deal, all would become clear within 3 months".

Called it on the back of #Asymptomatic spread (if people don't see it, it isn't there). 4/x

From that point, *I dedicated 12 hours a day EVERY day to reading all the news on the virus i could find*.

Read every article on zerohedge (since it's basically an aggregate blog), the SCMP, Twitter and CNN (first 3 weeks).

For 6 months.

I'm the Factchecker's Fact Checker 5/x

I started telling my friends but problem is i didn't have any (medical) background, so who would believe me? Well, no one.

But i'm one stubborn son of a bitch; I doubled down every time. Far for me to make these claims without proof, so i offer my first clear public warning: 6/x

Made on my discord (left over from my streaming days) which contained all the people even remotely willing to listen at that point.

And after the subsequent rally, i doubled down *publicly*. Proof attached.

As you can see by the single like.. It didn't end up mattering much 7/x

Hard to convince people the bad times are coming when the good times are rolling.

BUT! Just in case you think one time is lucky and the market crash was obvious; Let me offer proof that I. Did. It. Twice.

https://twitter.com/DesoGames/status/1305220462193127426

And the end result... Predictable: 8/x

SO. If any of you after reading all of this wonder "Why didn't you warn ahead of time?"

I Did. Twice. Y'all deaf, dumb and stupid. There's no point. *i told you*. If humans don't see it, it isn't there.

Well the lines are there now on the charts that matter. YA HAPPY NOW?! 9/x

Ugh.

Anyways. Not making this to brag (although some goddamn recognition would be nice).

It's because #covid19's become an unseen problem again. In July i focused on the #comex because awareness of the virus had spread and the end result would be out of my hands regardless 10/x

The #Comex and #Tether had become the next unseen threats that people needed to be warned about (again, Crashes Matter!) ahead of time. I shifted alot of my time and energy from tracking the virus to tracking the Comex (and keeping watch with tether).

That ball's rolling. 11/x

While little unseen threats remain at this point, for a threat to be "unseen", it merely means that "it is not in the public eye".

Obviously the threat was seen, i spotted it, so it exists. But for it to affect society, society as a whole has to become aware of it. 12/x

Like with the 2nd wave - i could easily predict it and #covid19 was well known, but the general populace thought it under control, so they behaved as if the threat wasn't there with predictable results - a 2nd lockdown.

Another threat exists right now: *Extended* Lockdowns. 13/x

My background story was not told without cause. The point of it all is, *I Was There*.

I saw every piece of information BEFORE the mainstream news and the politicians got a hold of it, because they where asleep at the wheel while i was not.

Therefor... I know the Truth. 14/x

And the Truth that this prediction is resting on is as follows:

#Lockdowns #work.

Again, as you read that, i bid you to remember: I was there. I Saw, before all of you, the lockdown of #Wuhan and its effects via Social Media (that lockdown happened on January 21st). 15/x

Also i would like to point out that the Chinese internet censors cracked down around Hard Mid-*February*.

After Li Wenliang was announced dead on February 7th, outrage was so high the Chinese let the internet run virtually uncensored for ~2 weeks before they cracked down. 16/x

Before the crackdown information coming out of China was alot more trustworthy. Like everybody else, Chinese officials were asleep at the wheel so they *had* to let the populace vent. Until control had to be restored.

While the data might be bogus the videos i saw where not 17/x

I give this history lesson for a specific reason: Virus Countermeasures have become politicized.

*ALL* of them. Masks, lockdowns, distancing, all of them. And what "Politicized" means in this case is:

Their functionality is secondary to the narrative of the people in power 18/x

In short; People in power are deliberately confusing the issue for personal gain.

Here's the FULL truth:

Lockdowns WORK; to flatten the curve and prevent hospitals from becoming overloaded.

Lockdowns DO NOT REMOVE A VIRUS FROM SOCIETY.

Once it's endemic, you're Fucked 19/x

Remember that? #flattenthecurve?

Yeah you probably don't remember the MONUMENTAL EFFORT @chrismartenson and people like him where putting in to try and swing this fucking battleship of a society around.

When Chris started that, the prevailing opinion was "it's just a flu". 20/x

"It just kills the old and the weak with underlying conditions".

Good now we're back to Spartan society cause that's *exactly* what they did; Toss the elderly and malformed off a fucking cliff. At least they died faster.

Congrats we've progressed NOTHING in 2 millenia. 21/x

Anyway. The point of all this is, the politicians can create whatever narrative they like, *even they* are subject to reality.

Meaning they can say a lockdown does whatever - but if they *don't* implement one the numbers go off the charts until they do.

Virus. Don't. Care. 22/x

Neither does Reality btw. Ignore it, you get this:

thestreet.com/mishtalk/econo…

And as a result - Europe is again under lockdown.

And again, it works. Curves being flattened across the board.

However; There is ONE thing ALL OF YOU continually *refuse* to keep in mind: Timing 23/x

This time it's different:

1. It's November, not January. We just locked down in the Autumn - Before, we locked down at the End of Winter.
2. The virus isn't starting out and accelerating in the winter. It's Endemic. The exponential curve starts from a MUCH higher baseline 24/x

There is another Truth: #Covid19 spreads slower/stagnates when the sun is strong. Explanation soon (ran outta space - need to add new thread gimme sec :D).

First let me attach my evidence here:

Global VS Northern VS Southern hemisphere - One rotating into winter, one out. 25/x

As you can see from the picture, Different countries with *VERY* different lockdown approaches - from Excellent to Bolsenaro - All show the exact same pattern.

And even though Cases are in there for comparison purposes, i'm mainly looking at Deaths.

Harder to fudge. 26/x

Yes - I'm well aware of PCR Ct test score inaccuracy as well as US overcounting of deaths. That's why the US isn't in there. And remember, i've read ALOT of news from the beginning and i still keep up to date even if it doesn't have my focus.

Generally countries underreport 27/x

Evidenced by various spikes in the numbers of various countries - deaths/cases missed first time round

Whether you look at Czechia's early masking (as only EU country to do so), Sweden's "non-lockdown" or just hardcore lockdown countries like france, the pattern is the same 28/x

Timing fucked us, and humans are *extremely poor* at handling time in any other way then one day at a time.

The lockdowns worked >So well< the first time because *lockdowns work* AND *the Sun got stronger*. That's why it stabilized.

End them mid winter, cases *will* spike 29/x

Regardless you guys know by now i'm not one to suggest things without evidence.

Nor am i one to offer criticism without offering a solution. Society is rife with critics already.

So allow me to combine the two and explain:

Why does Covid spread faster in winter? 30/x

The explanation is split into 2 parts: Outside and inside. Outside first as it pertains to the above pictures.

Incredibly simple explanation: The Sun. Specifically; the UV index of any country at any given time.

And with nearly a full years worth of data i can show to you: 31/x

What you're looking at is the Dutch Casecount of #Covid19 (in log scale form because the 2nd wave is bigger);

And overlaid ontop is the (inverted) Yearly Average UV Index (as supplied by the RIVM themslves - the Dutch health authority in charge of advising the pandemic!!!) 32/x

So why does #Covid19 spread slower outside?

Well it spreads through droplets AND AEROSOLS.
(we've known this since FEBRUARY (south korean news station fact checkers go suck it): )

Aerosols are tiny. UV rays bring them to Ambient Temperature quickly. 33/x

But when the sun is gone, a twofold things happen:

1. Ambient temperature drops while human body temperature stays the same - the temperature differential with ambient increases.
2. The Sun's UV rays are weaker (if it isn't plain cloudy) so heating power is reduced. 34/x

NONE of this is up for debate!!! This is PHYSICS!

Hot air rises! We've known this for CENTURIES.

And take away a radiating source of heat, you're not gonna be heating up much of anything, are you?

Since your BREATH is 37C, and you breathe AIR, the AEROsols carry further. 35/x

I haven't mapped the UV index for every country, but consider Australia had it's "second wave" in Mid July, i'm willing to bet it'll be pretty close across the board.

It takes TIME to both cool/heat something, and if it's colder, it'll take *more time* to cool to AMBIENT 36/x

As i said that i was going to offer solutions, here's the first one for the outside problem:

WEAR MASKS.

BUT!

ONLY IN WINTER!

As SOON as the UV index increases sufficiently(For the Netherlands i'd say May), Social Distancing is MUCH more effective. But in the winter, NO. 37/x

WHY can't we be FUCKING reasonable for once?

WHY can't we FUCKING understand that;

AT DIFFERENT TIMES, DIFFERENT MEASURES HAVE DIFFERENT LEVELS OF EFFICACY BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS!!!!

FUCK this black and white world. I feel i'm like i'm in an intellectual swamp. 38/x

But i'm not done. Next the question of "Why does it spread so quickly indoors in the winter?"

Allow me to offer a novel theory (that i've also been yelling into the void for MONTHS):

Thermal Vents.

THIS time though, i drew a diagram (so you morons can SEE it).

BEHOLD! 39/x

Allow me to explain.

Hot air rises. We've known this for a very long time.

And because we are an efficient bunch, if we decide to heat up a room, we place radiators *near ground level*.

Because otherwise they'd only heat up the ceiling right?

Cause hot air rises. 40/x

Well, because it's cold outside in winter, effectively, the environment is cooling down the outside of the structure continually.

This drags the heat out of the roof, cooling the wall.

Drags heat into the wall, heating the wall + cooling the room.

That causes airflow. Up. 41/x

Again, Aerosols are TINY!

So small, Surgical masks don't work (60% efficiency on intake, higher on the outflow).

To aerosols, Air molecules are alot bigger - bumping into one will lift an aerosol much higher then it lifts us.

So when you have a MASS of them floating up.. 42/x

On the diagram i've drawn these airflow lines out to make it clear.

In the summer, people don't heat their room and open up their houses. This causes >a one directional< breeze, and any air outside the breeze is basically stagnant.

There's no airflow to carry particles. 43/x

But the picture changes in Winter.

People turn on heating, which happens by heating devices at ground level. Even shops with blowers at the entrance to create an airscreen blow air downwards.

This causes an airflow from those devices upwards and throughout the room. 44/x

People aswell only heat the floor/room they're located in most of the time. In a multistory house this increases the cooling capacity of the upper floors (acting as a heatsink through conduction), meaning the airflow never stops.

Naturally this goes for ALL indoor venues! 45/x

And guess what?

For years now;

I've been complaining that in winter here, Shops turn up the heat TOO GODDAMN MUCH!

I'm PACKED IN because i'm freezing my ass off and these jackass teenagers with internal furnaces are walking around in FUCKING T-SHIRTS!

YOU KIDDING ME! 46/x

I swear if i spend more then 15 minutes in a shop in the winter without taking off my coat i leave ANY store soaked in sweat.

Customer is king my hairy ass. WEAR A SWEATER AND DROP THE TEMPERATURE FFS.

And people wonder why internet shopping is taking over. 47/x

My solutions to keep ANY sort of economical activity in the coming winter, are two fold:

1. MASKS, INFRONT OF MOUTHS! Nose doesn't matter. You exhale downwards. What must be stopped is >the forward kinetic force of particles<.

In short, they catch airtime, we're fucked. 48/x

2. - And this is the Important one -

>>>Drop Indoor Temperature In Public Venues To Ambient<<<

>>>Have employees wear more clothes instead<<<

>>>If you need a spot to warm up, use HEAT LAMPS OUTSIDE! They will blast the aerosols with radiation as much as they do you<<< 49/x

I've again done all i can do. People haven't listened before, i have no expectations now.

I'm NOT gonna ask to share this.

PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY ONLY!

I typed this. I've been at it all year. I've done my duty.

How about the people in charge START DOING THEIRS!

50/END