Thread by @Javanmardi75

The "launches" to the campus, the monitoring of the improvement efforts & the #redline that must not be crossed in the quality & quantity of armaments: this is how the 🇮🇱Israeli defense deals with the threat of #Hezbollah's precision missiles. 1
israelhayom.co.il/article/855465

This is probably one of the few threats that the Israeli public is not fully aware of. A significant strategic threat, which could lead #Israel to launch a pre-emptive strike, even though the pretext is not nuclear weapons. This is also the hottest issue: #Hezbollah missiles! 2

Immediately after the 2ed Lebanon War, ignoring Security Council Resolution 1701, which imposed a full #embargo on arms transfers to #Hezbollah, Hezbollah embarked on a huge logistical op, with billions of $ in #Iranian funding, equipped with tens of thousands of rockets. 3

#Hezbollah became the world's most powerful terrorist army. The term #Terrorist_Army is very common in @IDF, but it’s controversial as some experts believe that it gives the org too much credit, because after all, it is a terrorist organization & not an institutionalized army. 4

Estimation: #Hezbollah currently has 120-140K #rockets for a short range of 45-40km, covering the northern third of the country, including Haifa Bay and Tiberias; Several thousand rockets with a medium range of up to 90km, reach the Sharon & the northern outskirts of Gush Dan. 5

Hezbollah rockets & #missiles are scattered throughout #Lebanon. It holds the short-range rockets mainly in the south of the country, in an area close to the border with #Israel, in order to make the most of their range. 6

Missiles are hidden in houses within the 230 #Shiite villages, ready to be activated at any moment. From there, the org plans to rain incendiary fire on the Galilee, in fact paralyze it. 7

If the #IDF decides to enter the villages from the bottom to stop the launches, it will encounter an array of fortifications set up by #Hezbollah, as an ambush for the forces. 8

The other #missiles, made in #Iran and #Syria, are scattered around sites throughout #Lebanon. The longer their range, the more #Hezbollah can launch them from the depths of Lebanon. This makes missile hunting much more challenging for intelligence and the Air Force. @IAFsite 9

#Israel's air defense system is not built to deal with such an amount of #rockets. As a rule, it is designed to operate from light to heavy, with most of the effort concentrated on long-range #missiles and the protection of strategic sites. 10

Those who are supposed to handle these #missiles are #IronDome systems and a magic wand; The latter is also responsible for intercepting #cruise missiles. Air defense systems are supposed to distinguish accurate missiles from others and prioritize interception, if necessary. 11

The huge amount of missiles held by #Hezbollah is intended to deter #Israel from starting a war. But in fact it is part of a broader plan led by the #QudsForce commander of the #IRGC, Qassem #Suleimani, who was assassinated last year by the Americans in Iraq. 12

#Suleimani’s idea was to surround Iran's enemies with missiles and #terrorism from every possible direction, and #Hezbollah's lineup was only one component of the plan. Another component is the aid that #Iran is transferring to Islamic Jihad & Hamas. 13

#Iran has sought to establish another front vs #Israel, in #Syria, of militias that will act on its behalf, under its direction; to establish naval, air, land bases of Afghan/Pakistani fighters, to equip a large amount of weapons to carry out attacks into Israeli territory. 14

Thousands of #Israeli airstrikes have been reported in the #Syrian area, and if at the beginning any attack would have shaken the world, today it is barely reported. These attacks are anything but ordinary: 15

The #Israeli strikes are complex, and often dangerous, operations that could result in the downing of a plane or injuring civilians. The fact that this does not happen (except for one case, in 2018) is proof of the absolute superiority of the @IAFsite in the arena. @IDF 16

Following the 2ed Lebanon War, #Hezbollah concluded that it was saturated in terms of the amount of #missiles, and began investing in improving their accuracy. This concept, to be precise, may be misleading for those who do not work in the field, but it is critical: 17

Most of #Hezbollah's arsenal today, and also of #Hamas, is that of statistical, "stupid" rockets. Whoever launches them cannot control the place of their hit, and in order to inflict actual damage, a large amount of rockets must be launched. 18

One of #Hezbollah's main missiles is the M-600 #Tishrin which is manufactured in #Syria and is based on the #Iranian #Fatah-110 missile. This missile has many versions, and has a range of about 250km and a warhead of about half a ton. 19

Its current accuracy is a radius of tens of meters from the target. Other missiles are accurate at a level of about 100 meters.
For those who just want to kill civilians in quantities it is good enough, but those who want to white-up a country need more than that. 20

#Hezbollah wants to be able to do to #Israel exactly what it did to it in the 2ed Lebanon War: to attack strategic facilities (electricity), military facilities (the Air Force) & government institutions, to present a picture of victory. Therefore accuracy is critical. 21

The person who led #Hezbollah's accelerated armaments project after the 2ed Lebanon War was Imad Moghnia. Following his assassination in Feb 2008 in Damascus, he was replaced by his cousin and brother-in-law, Mustafa Bader a-Din, also one of the organization's founders. 22

In May 2016, Badr aDin was also assassinated, in a joint operation for #Hezbollah and #Iran: the official excuse was his fondness for alcohol, women and money, but the real reason was a series of frictions with #Suleimani over #Hezbollah's involvement in the Syrian civil war. 23

The assassination transferred the project to the exclusive management of #Nasrallah and #Suleimani. In the beginning, #Hezbollah's acquisition of precision weapons was awkward. The precision missiles were manufactured in #Iran and flown to Damascus. 24

In 2013 #Israel began a campaign to prevent precise capability for #Lebanon. Attacks accelerated in 2014, slowed in 2015 when Russia joined to save Assad’s rule, & accelerated in 2016, when Israel realized its widespread freedom of action despite Russia's presence in Syria. 25

End of Part I (25 tweets)