Thread by @Charles_Lister

With the #Biden administration settled in, there's a clear trend emerging in certain circles to swat away long-standing, complex foreign policy challenges -- and #Syria appears to be low-hanging fruit.

'#Syria doesn't matter,' some say... 'It was just never that important.'

It's good for there to be a debate -- & yes, 'great power competition' (#China, #Russia etc.) ought to be *the* priority.

BUT to shove #Syria aside as a minor inconvenience would be profoundly reckless, given the extraordinary costs it's inflicted on global stability since '11.

So far, arguments in favor of '#Syria doesn't matter' can be broken down into 2 camps:

(1) Those who ignore the profound past, current & future costs altogether - or worse - (2) those who astonishingly claim that #Assad, #Russia & #Iran can resolve the crisis & achieve stability

Those basing their '#Syria doesn't matter' proposals on (2) are pushing a position that has no basis in reality -- 'leaving it to others' is an intrinsically short-termist argument that falls apart at the slightest examination. The past decade proves that to be abundantly clear.

Neither (1) nor (2) stand up to even a cursory examination -- for in truth, they're far more reflective of a dubious desire to align with prevailing big picture foreign policy trends than they are of objective reality.

So, why DOES #Syria matter? Let's take a 40,000 sq ft look:

Over the past 10yrs, #Syria's crisis has destabilized the world in more/bigger ways than any single conflict has in many decades -- 500K killed, 12.5m displaced, refugee wave (= far right/populism, NATO & EU divisions), #ISIS, #Iran expansion, #Russia surge, 340+ CW attacks etc.

As it stands today, #Syria is a broken state, positioned at the heart of the #MiddleEast & is *the* regional focal point for global geopolitical competition. And its trajectory is only bad.

If #Syria is left alone, we'll be sucked back in with successively reduced leverage.

Since 2011, 6+ million #Syrians have fled & become refugees -- forcing entirely unsustainable strains on 3 US allies: #Jordan, #Lebanon & #Turkey.

Today, *all* polling indicates that refugees have zero interest in returning to an #Assad-controlled #Syria -- that's unsustainable.

Thanks to 10yrs of crisis & conflict, #Syria is now *the* beating heart, or the 'jewel in the crown' of #Iran's regional assertive posture -- a reality that'll survive with/without sanctions.

Israel knows this & is engaged in a constant 'mowing the grass' / containment campaign.

#ISIS's explosive rise in 2014 sparked a global terror crisis & although rid of its territory, current dynamics in #Syria all-but guarantee an #ISIS resurgence -- all the ingredients are there & the pro-#Assad alliance's military frailty is providing it with an invaluable vacuum.

3.5 million people (16% of pre-war pop'n) are now crammed into ~3% of #Syria's territory -- in the NW, where their de facto governor is a #Taliban-like entity: #HTS.

As a sign of how bad the #Idlib conundrum is, most policymakers privately acknowledge there's no better scenario.

Since its 2015 military intervention, #Russia has perceived #Syria as a major geopolitical victory — but this accomplishment sits on razor thin ice:

#Syria is utterly broke & fast becoming a terrifying combination of #Somalia & #NorthKorea, which is a true regional nightmare.

The #Assad-#Russia-#Iran alliance has proven somewhat adept at starving/killing their #Syrian adversaries, but the most unstable areas of #Syria in 2020 were those recaptured in 2018 -- they can't 'reconcile,' stabilize or rebuild.

In #Daraa, 450+ insurgent attacks in 18 months.

For the U.S, the 'Defeat #ISIS' campaign resembles a rare example of success & one achieved at minimal cost & in a sustainable model -- especially when compared to #Afghanistan, #Iraq & more.

BUT, "victory" is still a long way off & is complicated by #ISIS resurgence elsewhere.

10yrs of #Syria's crisis has witnessed an #Assad-led crippling erosion of international norms — from industrialized torture; 340+ CW attacks; starve/siege campaigns; 100,000 disappeared; systematic obstruction of @UN aid system; etc.

And zero accountability -- that cannot last.

@UN So to those advocating disengagement from #Syria &/or 'leaving it to' #Russia et. al., to deal with -- please explain how sustaining or allowing the above *realities* to get worse suits U.S. national security? Or how #Russia et. al. will fix it all.

If you can, I'm all ears.