On May 26th @StateBank_Pak released #Pakistan's disaggregated #trade statistics for April '21. We now have 10 months of the FY21. Some analysis in #thread below. πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡
#Pakistan #exports of #goods & #services grew by 6.2%., surpassing the US$25 billion mark. (2/n) Pakistan exports of goods and services, first 10 months of F
By #destination: substantial increases of shipments to #China and the #USA. Stability with #Afghanistan, and contractions in shipments to #UAE.

[#export growth to China and USA is confirmed by mirror data analysis] (3/n) Pakistan exports by destination, in million USD. (source SBP
By #sector: #textiles and #apparel, and base #metals have been main drivers of #export growth. #Foodstuffs and #Vegetables (rice) still struggling, but with some promising trends. (4/n) Export growth 10months FY21 versus 10months FY20, by sector.
Zooming in: looking at monthly growth numbers shows (i) an impressive #takeoff of #textiles and #apparel, #minerals, and some mild recovery in #vegetable products and #foodstuffs. (5/n)
The #cindirella of the #export sector: services, also shows promising performance, particularly in #telecom and other #business #services exports that tend to be high in #knowledge content and #ValueAdded. (5/n)
#Import growth in #Pakistan during FY21 has been solid at 12% (although #services imports contracted).
But #mercantilists, worry not. (6/n)
Some of the #import growth is associated with inputs into #production, so more #domestic value added. e.g. #cotton, also food, and durables (#transport equipment). (7/n) Import growth 10months FY21 versus 10 months FY20. by Sector
Zooming in: also some promising news in the take off of #imports of #machinery, and key inputs such as #chemicals, that show regardless of the classification used (@StateBank_Pak versus PBS). (8/n) Import growth monthly, by sector, source SBP. Import growth, monthly, by sector, source PBS.
#Summary: good prospects, #exports & #imports growing (gIM>gEX, tho'). Balanced EX & IM growth requires reducing #anti-export bias of #tariff policy. Gradually cut duties on final goods. News below suggest, however, not enough being done to this end. dawn.com/news/1626138/g… (9/n)

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More from @gonwei

26 May
In the context of #Africa Day 2021, what's #Pakistan's untapped #export potential with that region? #thread πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡
We have recently estimated #Pakistan's export potential at about US$88 billion. The untapped portion of that is close to US$61 billion.

thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/884b60a… 2/n
The largest untapped #export potentials for #Pakistan are with #China, and with its own region, #SouthAsia, for about 13 and 12.5 billion respectively, stressing the importance #regional #integration initiatives. 3/n
Read 5 tweets
16 Nov 20
Wanted to analyze #Pakistan's #export performance, benchmarking with structural and aspirational countries, along 4 dimensions - #growth, #diversification, #quality, #survival. Thread below: πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡
1/n Since the turn of the century, #Pakistan has become a more inward oriented economy, with exports/GDP falling from 16 to 10%.
2/n As a result, #Pakistan's share of world markets fell from 16USD to 12USD out of every 1000USD traded between 1990 and 2019. #Bangladesh moved from 5 to 18USD in the same period. #Vietnam from 14 to 113USD!!!
Read 13 tweets
24 Nov 19
Nice article by @AliKhizar. To add to the dialogue, I'd like to share a few thoughts:
Pakistan moved into a current account surplus after years of a deficit. There seems to be a debate on whether that’s a good or a bad thing. Are CAD β€œbad”? As with everything in economics, the answer is β€˜it depends’. #PakThink 1/n
To understand why, let’s look at what is it that the CA balance shows. I wrote this a few years ago and can help clarify – Essentially composition of the CA balance and financing matter. #PakThink 2/n
Read 11 tweets

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