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Anas Alhajji Profile picture
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3 Nov, 8 tweets, 6 min read
Thread of 8 Charts on the oil politics between the Biden Administration and OPEC! Looks like a story!
#Oil #OPEC #Biden #OOTT #COP26
1-8 I am using IEA demand numbers so no one can say OPEC numbers are self-serving.
2-8
Notice that the demand gap shown in the IEA chart above is bigger than the OPEC production gap!
#OPEC #Oil
3-8
Saudi crude oil production is almost back to normal and will exceed 2019 levels soon.
#SaudiArabia
4-8
If the Biden administration is worried about gasoline prices, it should support US refineries! Or at least investigate why they are not back to 2018 levels!
#Refining #OOTT
5-8 The Biden Administration should also look into this: Why isn't US crude oil production back to normal?
#Shale
6-8
 Despite a major decline in US crude oil production, crude exports remain relatively strong.

Dare anyone think reinstating the export ban will solve any problems.
#Shale #Exports #ExportBan #Biden #Obama
7-8 No comment (Although I just did 😂)
#Russia
8-8
the US does not even depend on OPEC that much.
While asking OPEC to increase production will not solve any immediate problems pointing fingers will backfire. OPEC officials can point fingers too. That is called "Oil Politics"!
Welcome to my world! #OOTT

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More from @anasalhajji

Anas Alhajji Profile picture
22 Oct
1-2 Unfortunately, the question, which is the headline, is one thing, and the content is something else. But since I have done a lot of research on this and I taught the materials for years, I can see the source of confusion.
#OOTT #Oil

reuters.com/business/energ…
2- In economics, everything is determined at the margin, therefore, shares and percentages are less relevant, if any. The impact of increasing oil prices depends on the reactions of the governments and central banks. See my pinned thread
3- Oil prices increased drastically between 2004 and 2008… all major economies, including China and India, enjoyed healthy economic growth… Why record oil prices had no impact then? Is conventional wisdom wrong?
Read 9 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
21 Oct
Thread on #oil, #OPEC, and #India

1- For a policy or a plan to succeed, the focus must be on what is under control, not on things that are controlled by others or cannot be controlled.
#OOTT
2- Even non-competitive models in economics focus on quantity, not on prices.
3- Historically, OPEC tried to control quantities & prices at once. It failed miserably.

4- One of the reasons for the success of OPEC+ in recent years is the focus on what they control only & that was production.
#Oil
5- #Texas Railroad Commission focused on quantities only when it rationed production. It succeeded according to many researchers.

6- The complete failure happened when the Texas Railroad Commission stopped controlling production and the US government imposed PRICE controls
Read 12 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
10 Oct
Thread on the global energy crisis
1- Investors do not invest for "wartime"!
That is why you end up with shortages during wars, especially when supplies and materials are diverted to the army.

#OOTT #Energy #Europe #India #China #Brazil #California
2- Energy investors do not invest for the time of shortages & crises except what is mandated.

But "mandated" leads to "corruption"! Examples: problems in India and China now... and the many loopholes in the US and Europe

#energycrisis #Oil #OOTT #India #China
3- Add #COVID19, supply chain issues, policy failures, domestic & international politics, violations of all energy security principles, and low investment in recent years because of low energy prices and hype of US shale, renewables, and #ElectricVehicles ..you get energy crises
Read 14 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
10 Oct
Where is my coal?

With shortages and high prices, theft increases throughout the world.
#coal #India
indianexpress.com/article/cities…
Gasoline theft in US

abc7news.com/archive/811287…
This is all tine favourite… stories like this have been circulating for decades.. some true, others are not

#Gasoline

710keel.com/thieves-try-to…
Read 4 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
28 Sep
Thread on higher energy prices in Europe
1- Several people are saying that higher fossil fuel prices in Europe will expedite the transition to renewables. Really? We have been there before!

2- The basic materials used in all energy sources are the same. Costs go up for all.
3- If demand for drilling equipment increases as oil & gas prices rise, basic materials for wind & solar may not be available. If available, they will be at higher prices. With oil above $75 & natural gas above $5, the oil industry can afford the increase in cost. Others cannot!
4- Oil & renewable energy are not substitutes in Europe, the US, China, and India. That where most of the global oil consumption is.
5- Natural gas is needed to back up solar & wind regardless of its price in a carbon neutrality world. Otherwise, coal is here to stay as a backup.
Read 12 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
15 Aug
سلسلة تغريدات عن أهمية أفغانستان الاستراتيجية لسياسات التغير المناخي
1- لانعرف بالضبط ماهو دور أنابيب الغاز والنفط والثروات المعدنية لأفغانستان في الاحتلال الأميركي لها، أو الانسحاب منها، أو في السماح لطالبان في السيطرة عليها. #أفغانستان #طالبان
2- الحديث عن دور هذه الأنابيب والمعادن هو مجرد تخمين، أو هو مجرد منفعة إضافية، وهذا يعني أنها لم تكن الهدف الأساس لا في الدخول ولافي الخروج، ولكن لامانع من تحقيق منافع اضافية. وجود تصريحات أميركية عن أهميتها لايعني بالضرورة على أنها السبب.
3- خط أنبوب "تابي" ينقل الغاز من تركمانستان إلى أفغانستان ثم إلى الباكستان والهند بطول 1814 كم. الفكرة قديمة منذ التسعينيات، تم إنشاء أقسام منه في أفغانستان وفي باكستان. الخط مهم للغرب لأنه يضارب على إيران. مهم للباكستان والهند، ويخفف من اعتماد الصين على روسيا.
Read 35 tweets

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