.@wjhurst reveals #InconvenientTruth

"#China’s #coal-producing regions are critical to the political coalition #Xi has cobbled together since assuming power in 2012..frequently emphasizes the time he spent as a young man in the coal-producing region of northern #ShaanxiProvince"
In @Diplomat_APAC, @wjhurst explains #China's #copout26 @ #COP26Glasgow:

"Political support from sectors like #coal, dom. by state-owned industrial behemoths, is also..key. Unlike his predecessors..#Xi likely cannot afford to lose the support of SOEs..."

thediplomat.com/2021/12/explai…
"Grasping for new tactics & strategies for growth, while..endeavoring to maintain its grip on power & transition to a new era of entrenched (&increasingly personalistic..) authoritarianism, the party is loath to commit to anything so risky as faster achievement of #climate goals"

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More from @AndrewSErickson

13 Sep
There’s a gaping (loop)hole in #climate reporting, calculations & countermeasures—#BlueCarbon!

Must finally put #Seabed #CarbonSink on agenda for #COP26...

Here too #China leads world in #carbon damage—by far.

Time for accountability on #RoadToGlasgow!

foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/10/chi…
#Ocean covers 71% of world’s surface..<10% mapped w/ modern sonar.

Salt marshes, mangroves, seagrass beds & ultra-deep abyssal #seabed absorb large quantities of #CO2 from atmosphere & balancing critical #climate systems.

Disrupting risks grave & potentially irreversible harms
.@Nature: “#marine sediments are the largest pool of organic #carbon on the planet.”

Est. vol. ~7 trillion metric tons—>3X cumulative anthropogenic #CO2 emissions since 1750.

Bottom trawl #fishing & #seabed mining—both #PRC-led—risk damaging disruption.

foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/10/chi…
Read 25 tweets
29 Mar
New @ForeignPolicy article + slide deck:

7 #China #MaritimeMilitia ships ID'ed @ #WhitsunReef/ #UnionBanks in #SouthChinaSea!

Great to publish w/ @NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime colleague @rdmartinson88. And always a pleasure to work w/ @BeijingPalmer!

foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/29/chi…
#BottomLine:

***At the very least, 7 People's #ArmedForces #MaritimeMilitia (#PAFMM) vessels have been operating at the #Spratly Islands’ #UnionBanks, including #WhitsunReef—both during the past month & multiple times over the past year.

foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/29/chi…

@ForeignPolicy
Thanks to research w/ @rdmartinson88, building on @GregPoling's

Spotlight's now on #Taishan #PAFMM vessels #Yuetaiyu 18000, 18111, 18222, 18333, 18555, 18666, 18777, 18888 & 18999—“The Fancheng Nine”—from a #FarSeas Militia #Squadron (#远海民兵大队) that doesn’t actually fish...
Read 14 tweets
24 Mar
Ambassador Huang, allow me to recommend:

The #China #MaritimeMilitia #Bookshelf--

andrewerickson.com/2021/03/the-ch…

Includes multiple official items from your own government on your nation's #ThirdSeaForce.

China is often more transparent in #Chinese :)

Truth best limits "speculation"
And here's #China's own official state media documenting progress of its #MaritimeMilitia... in plain #English!

english.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/…

News Channels/China Military News
Maritime militia increases drills, expands in scope
Source: China Daily Editor: Yao Jianing
2016-02-02 17:16
But don't take my word for it, read #ChinaDaily:
"As the People's Liberation Army upgrades its navy, commissioning dozens of new ships under a watchful global eye,a less noticed force,China's maritime militia, is also improving its operational capability."
english.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/…
Read 14 tweets
15 Mar
"The greatest danger for the United States in this competition is the erosion of conventional deterrence..Absent a convincing deterrent, the [PRC] will be emboldened to take action to undermine the rules-based international order"

armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…

bit.ly/AdmiralDavidson
ADM Davidson:

"In September 2020, #Cambodia razed a #US-built facility on #Ream Naval Base that served as the headquarters for the National Committee on Maritime Security, reportedly in order to make way for a #PRC #naval #base."

armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03…

bit.ly/AdmiralDavidson
Read 15 tweets
14 Mar
New set of major @ModJapan_en/@ModJapan_jp reports brims with exquisitely detailed graphics!

Key images compiled here: bit.ly/J-MOD

#Security Environment Surrounding #Japan [わが国を取り巻く安全保障環境]

andrewerickson.com/2021/03/japan-…

Topics: #China, #NorthKorea & #Russia
Report @ModJapan_en/@ModJapan_jp [1/3]:

#China’s Activities in #EastChinaSea, #Pacific Ocean & Sea of #Japan

[中国情勢(東シナ海・太平洋・日本海)]

mod.go.jp/e/d_act/sec_en…

mod.go.jp/j/approach/sur…

bit.ly/J-MOD

Check out the attached images... just a small sample!
Report @ModJapan_en/@ModJapan_jp [1B/3]:

#China’s Activities in the #SouthChinaSea (China’s development activities on the features & trends in related countries) [南シナ海情勢(中国による地形埋立・関係国の動向)]

mod.go.jp/e/d_act/sec_en…

mod.go.jp/j/approach/sur…

>>See images!
Read 5 tweets
16 Feb
Fmr Director for #Oceania & #IndoPacific #Security Alex Gray:

"As a senior allied government official once noted to me, a map of Imperial #Japan’s #Pacific islands bases in 1941 could almost perfectly overlay #Beijing’s areas of most intense economic & political activity today."
"the 5 #Micronesian states have traditionally been the most skeptical of #Beijing & eager to work w/ #Washington & its partners.

...#Palau, Federated States of #Micronesia, & #MarshallIslands are bound to the US through #CompactsofFreeAssociation"

thehill.com/opinion/intern…

#COFA
"The #Biden administration has an opportunity, working closely with Australia & New Zealand & other interested partners like #Taiwan, Japan, & France, to signal America’s unwavering support for a #PIF that represents the voices of all #Pacific #islanders"

thehill.com/opinion/intern…
Read 5 tweets

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