Thread by @AndrewSErickson

New @ForeignPolicy article + slide deck:

7 #China #MaritimeMilitia ships ID'ed @ #WhitsunReef/ #UnionBanks in #SouthChinaSea!

Great to publish w/ @NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime colleague @rdmartinson88. And always a pleasure to work w/ @BeijingPalmer!

foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/29/chi…

#BottomLine:

***At the very least, 7 People's #ArmedForces #MaritimeMilitia (#PAFMM) vessels have been operating at the #Spratly Islands’ #UnionBanks, including #WhitsunReef—both during the past month & multiple times over the past year.

foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/29/chi…

@ForeignPolicy

Thanks to research w/ @rdmartinson88, building on @GregPoling's

Spotlight's now on #Taishan #PAFMM vessels #Yuetaiyu 18000, 18111, 18222, 18333, 18555, 18666, 18777, 18888 & 18999—“The Fancheng Nine”—from a #FarSeas Militia #Squadron (#远海民兵大队) that doesn’t actually fish...

And now for several thousand words' worth of images on the #Taishan #PAFMM vessels that have operated around #WhitsunReef & #UnionBanks...

...from our 10-slide deck: bit.ly/TaiShan

Please ask #PRC officials to explain!

andrewerickson.com/2021/03/record…

andrewerickson.com/wp-content/upl…

170 km SW of #HongKong...

Est. October 2016, #Taishan #Fancheng #Fisheries Development Co. Ltd. (#台山市帆程渔业发展有限公司) is based in Taishan City (population 941,000), itself administered by #Jiangmen, a city of 4.5 million in #Guangdong Province.

bit.ly/TaiShan

Meet the #FanchengNine—large, purpose-built #Taishan #MaritimeMilitia trawlers!

They don't troll for #fish, but rather for #territory.

Check out their distinctive hull numbers (no unlucky 444?) & #MMSI #s.

Nice mugshot of #Yuetaiyu 18999 attached here!

bit.ly/TaiShan

How #Taishan built its leading #PAFMM fleet:

In 2017, #FanchengFisheries & Guangxin #Shipbuilding signed contract for 9 X 62.8 M “backbone #Spratly #fishing vessels.”

#Ships built, tested & delivered in just 9 mo.

See attached photo of #Yuetaiyu 18000!

bit.ly/TaiShan

At 9 trawlers’ delivery ceremony, the guests of honor included two #PLA #officers.

Their presence indicates that the #FanchengNine were no ordinary fishing vessels, but rather the newest additions to #Taishan's #PAFMM—subject to a PLA chain of #command.

bit.ly/TaiShan

In 2019, Director of Jiangmen City’s Bureau of Veterans Affairs visited #Taishan's #FarSeas #Militia #Squadron #远海民兵大队.

Exhorted captain & the crew to be “vanguard” #先锋 protecting #PRC claims.

Emphasizes employing #PLA #veterans (à la #Sansha).

bit.ly/TaiShan

Since March 2020, #FanchengNine have systematically sailed 1,300-km from #Taishan to #UnionBanks/#WhitsunReef, patrolled there & nearby Subi & Mischief Reefs & returned directly home.

bit.ly/TaiShan

No evidence of fishing, every indication of trolling for #territory...

None of this behavior would make any sense for fishing vessels—which have strong economic incentives to fish frequently, not linger offshore.

Instead mirrors #Sansha #PAFMM's rotational forward deployments to #Scarborough, #FieryCross, #Mischief & #Subi.

bit.ly/TaiShan

The #FanchengNine have engaged in extensive operations throughout #UnionBanks, including in *#WhitsunReef's lagoon.

Beyond Union, in Dec. 2020, they conducted pressuring presence operations @ #SandyCay, just west of the Philippine-occupied #ThituIsland.

bit.ly/TaiShan

Current deployment began when 8/9 #Fancheng trawlers departed Guangdong 16 Feb 2021, arriving several days later @ #SubiReef.

Since then, AIS transmissions indicate at least 7 have patrolled #UnionBanks, including #WhitsunReef’s lagoon. (8th shut off AIS soon after leaving port)

#BottomLine:

#PRC statements are provably untrue.

*At the very least*, 7 #China #MaritimeMilitia vessels have been operating @ #Spratly Islands’ #UnionBanks, including #WhitsunReef—both during the past month & multiple times over the past year.

#THREAD

foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/29/chi…