Thread by @SonyKapoor

Thoughts on how we got here in #Ukraine, what is happening, & what we in the #EU & #NATO need 2 do now

#thread 🧵1/n

Bon courage 2 all #Ukrainian friends & citizens

Admiration 4 journalists on the ground - stay safe

Understanding for #Russian citizens who did not want war

First we need to hang our head in shame. The US was explicit in intelligence readouts saying what has happened would happen. So it's not like we were not warned.

From early December onwards the playbook #Russia has followed was clearly laid out and this was brushed off lightly!

The unified stance of #EU member states, #NATO and the #US looked good, but only because we had been pathetic.

#Russia has been very successful in infiltrating western democracies.

Russian footprints all over, especially on the far right, right, and the @GOP especially #Trump

From Hungary´s Orban to Italy's business elite, to #Cyprus banks to large parts of the German political elite & what has increasingly seemed to be the whole of the #UK conservatives and the #Trump wing of the @GOP, large tracts western democracies have been compromised by Russia!

It was unclear if #Hungary would sign on to modest #EU sanctions. Germany´s cancellation of #Nordstream2 looks meaningless in context. Helmets 4 #Ukraine army was laughable. Credible that #Boris sanctions feeble owing 2 Russian funding. Biden ruled out military defence. We failed

It was clear with the "fortress Russian balance sheet narratives" that #Putin was readying 4 war

It was also clear he was willing 2 put up with any economic sanctions, at the cost of Russian citizens.

He was prepared 4 casualties!

We needed to offer military aid, we failed!

The question was (and is) - are western democracies willing to put their soldiers in harms way and risk suffering mass casualties to defend the sovereignty of #Ukraine, a non member of the EU and NATO?

Our answer was a loud and clear no, which history may judge us harshly for!

Make no mistake. The post WWII, post collapse of #Berlin Wall era is now gone.

We had a longish respite from war, a few decades of relative peace and prosperity. Goodbye to all that.

It has been a long time coming, with the rising tide of strongmen and illiberal authoritanism

The bizarre sight of Russia presiding over the UN SecCouncil meeting discussing #Putin´s war, #China´s deafening silence throughout the past weeks, the impotence of France, the UK and the USA in the face of #Russia´s naked flouting of uncounted laws and norms is etched in memory!

Bombs and missiles are flying all over #Ukraine now, hundreds of casualties feared, potentially turning into thousands as the day goes on, targeted reprisals against pro-western politicians and figures explicitly threatened and an attempted regime change is clearly underway!

China is watching, as are other authoritarian regimes. Our failure to act decisively will come with a heavy cost. If we failed to intervene to prevent war in the heart of Europe, what hope for #Taiwan or other poorer less fortunate countries in far away lands?

"Might is right?"

What now? Some short term, medium term, and longer term ideas we need to pursue.

1) Starting today, cut #Russia off from #SWIFT 2) Freezing of all Russian government & Oligarch assets 3) Blocking sanctions on doing business with Russia 4) Trade Embargoes 5) Publish Putin Assets

Time to invoke #Article4 of @NATO

“The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.”

Hard to see how many eastern members of NATO feeling secure now!

Assemble @NATO forces at the borders of #Ukraine and #Belarus with a 12 hour ultimatum for #Russia and #Belarus to immediately cease all military operations & withdraw to pre war boundaries. Open safe corridors and protection to all civilians fleeing conflict. Stop regime change!

We know the west, particularly the US has built huge cyber warfare capabilities over the years. Now is the time for #NATO and the #EU to launch a co-ordinated #cyberattack against #Russian military and government assets making sure not to disrupt critical services for citizens!

The west must stop the installation of a puppet regime in #Ukraine, & threatened reprisals by #Putin against pro-western politicians & public figures. We have a duty to protect.

An immediate start to negotiations towards a @NATO and #EU membership for #Ukraine to signal support

We should announce an ambitious reconstruction, reform & rehabilitation package 4 #Ukraine that is ambitious in finance and scope.

An IMF program, a huge expansion of the #EU aid programs and new resources from the US and Japan.

Closer integration with the EU an explicit goal

Longer term, we need to hyper charge the transition & the #greendeal. We have long known that fossil fuel revenues empower unsavoury and authoritarian regimes around the world and failed to act.

If #climatechange was not already the number one national security issue, it is now

Exert maximalist pressure on #China to condemn #Russia and join in at least on some of the sanctions.

Expel #Russia from the #G20

Create a club for democracies that includes India, the #EU, the #US and beyond to co-ordinate stance and votes at the UN and in international fora