Share this page!

Charles Lister Profile picture
Twitter logo
Feb 21 • 6 tweets • 7 min read
Two core takeaways so far:

1) #Putin is a paranoid madman (with control over 1,000s of nukes)

2) This is clearly a speech to #Russia’s people aimed at justifying serious & risky military action.
So deploying 190,000 troops was a move aimed at recognising #Donetsk & #Luhansk…

Yeah, that’s not convincing to me either. #Putin has a bigger game at play here.
And so it begins… This is #Putin’s intended slippery slope for #Ukraine.
“We’re not trying to take any territories… I’d like to confirm that #Donbas and #Luhansk are a part of #Ukraine.”

- A bare-faced lie made *24hrs ago* by @RusEmbUSA’s Amb. Anatoly Antonov — a senior #Kremlin figure sanctioned by the #EU for his role in crimes against #Ukraine.
This would seem to be a troubling shifting of #Biden admin goalposts — which risks sending precisely the wrong message to #Putin, especially after today’s address.
Within hours of #Russia troops arriving in #Donetsk tonight, the #Kremlin-backed DPR is now reporting "explosions" targeting the city.

It's not hard to see such "attacks" now being used as a direct pretext for *#Russian* retaliation on #Ukraine proper.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Charles Lister

Charles Lister Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Charles_Lister

Charles Lister Profile picture
Feb 22
As #Putin maneuvers into position for serious hostilities in #Ukraine, let's bear in mind the recent record of the Russian military. As a baseline is one factoid:

- Russian 'actions' in #Syria since 2015 have killed 23,000+ civilians.

airwars.org/news-and-inves… Image
In private meetings & bilateral dialogues in which I've been present, influential #Russia figures (both military & diplomatic) have repeatedly described #Grozny as *the* archetypal example of military success.

That 5 week siege & urban assault killed 8,000 civilians. Image
As a military actor in #Syria, the UN provided #Russia with coordinates of "deconflicted" hospitals -- to keep them safe.

=> #Russia used them to launch a campaign of dozens of precision strikes **on hospitals.**

Once it was done, #Moscow pulled out of the UN arrangement. Image
Read 5 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Feb 22
Finally had the time to listen to this @TheRedLinePod on #Syria, which I had the pleasure of speaking in -- it's a good listen that covers a lot over 1hr 40mins.

I'd be remiss though if I didn't highlight significant issues with claims made by another -- so here's a thread:
@TheRedLinePod In his section, Joshua Landis says (1) the revolution "quickly" became one of #Syria's Sunnis against Christians & Alawites' & (2) that #AlQaeda "quickly" dominated armed opposition.

Absolute nonsense -- simply re-voicing the #Assad regime's self-fulfilling sectarian framing.
@TheRedLinePod Landis then turns to #ISIS, claiming:

- US helped Maliki fight #ISIS & #Russia helped #Assad "destroy" #ISIS (NO)

- US & #Assad were "allies" -- and that "helped Shiites in the US" (WHAT?)

- As a result of that alliance, the US decided in '13 not to overthrow Assad (DATES!)
Read 4 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Feb 11
U.S. intel expects the invasion to begin next week, beginning with x2 days of airstrikes, artillery & electronic warfare, followed by a mass ground invasion seeking regime change in #Kyiv.

All per @nickschifrin, citing x3 Western & defense officials.
@nickschifrin In a new announcement, the #UK has called on all citizens to leave #Ukraine "while commercial means are still available" -- which is as clear an indication of where we're headed.

Meanwhile, ceasefire violations are *rocketing* in #Donetsk & #Luhansk:

@nickschifrin U.S. National Security Advisor @JakeSullivan46 confirms reporting that a #Russia invasion of #Ukraine could begin during the Olympics, but won't comment on specific intelligence.

"We're in the window where an invasion could begin at any time should #Putin decide to order it."
Read 5 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Feb 9
A breakout time of "weeks" would make "re-entering #JCPOA" a significant risk -- if there's going to be a deal, it'll need to be different, and significantly better/stronger, as #Iran is now just a 'hop, skip
& a jump' from the point of no return.
I'd give this vision a 0% chance of success.

There's just no way #Iran would re-enter the #JCPOA, take sanctions relief etc., and then agree to join a longer & more strict deal. It's a fantasy.
.@ChrisMurphyCT:

- "Now is the time for #Biden’s negotiating team to make the smart but necessary concessions to restart some version of #Obama’s nuclear deal."

No doubt #Trump put us in a horrible position, but framing things like this is problematic.

time.com/6146540/trumps… Image
Read 4 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Feb 7
700 boys, 12-16yrs old, remain in an #SDF prison in NE #Syria -- held without trial since 2019 & largely hidden from monitors since.

@UNICEF images saw them "sitting barefoot on a broken concrete & dirt floor," some with blankets over their shoulders.

nytimes.com/2022/02/06/wor…
After international outcry at 700+ boys aged 10-16 being held alongside #ISIS fighters in a makeshift #SDF prison (after being judged security threats by the #SDF), the #SDF turns its ire on… @UNICEF.

Not a good look, honestly.
@UNICEF As I've said many times, the ultimate blame for the #ISIS detainee/camps crisis lies with the international community -- no doubt about it.

But the #SDF have a role to play in this dynamic & they've made decisions, implemented policies & concealed things -- and that's on them.
Read 7 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Feb 3
#ISIS's choice of NW #Idlib as a hiding point for leaders raises complex analytical Qs.

What it does not suggest, is that #Idlib's de facto governing actor, #HTS, is in some way complicit in harboring #ISIS. That's simply factually illogical, given years of open hostility.
#HTS has conducted 100+ deadly raids targeting #ISIS cells in #Idlib since mid-2017 -- & is similarly hostile to #AlQaeda too, having wiped out AQ's operational presence in #Idlib 18 months ago.

Like all non-state actors, #HTS's capacity to know everything is distinctly limited.
Just like the #SDF missed 200-300 #ISIS militants & x2 SVBIEDs crossing 12 of their own checkpoints into #Hasakeh city & al-Sina Prison, #HTS missed a man & his family living in one level of a 3-storey building near #Atmeh -- an area flooded with transitory IDPs communities.
Read 13 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @Charles_Lister has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @Charles_Lister!

Read all threads by @Charles_Lister

:(