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Feb 9 • 4 tweets • 5 min read
A breakout time of "weeks" would make "re-entering #JCPOA" a significant risk -- if there's going to be a deal, it'll need to be different, and significantly better/stronger, as #Iran is now just a 'hop, skip
& a jump' from the point of no return.
I'd give this vision a 0% chance of success.

There's just no way #Iran would re-enter the #JCPOA, take sanctions relief etc., and then agree to join a longer & more strict deal. It's a fantasy.
.@ChrisMurphyCT:

- "Now is the time for #Biden’s negotiating team to make the smart but necessary concessions to restart some version of #Obama’s nuclear deal."

No doubt #Trump put us in a horrible position, but framing things like this is problematic.

time.com/6146540/trumps… Image
@ChrisMurphyCT While the U.S. has pushed #Iran to rejoin a nuclear deal, we've stood by as #Iranian oil exports surged to their highest level in 3yrs, to as high as 1 million BPD.

That's self-ceded leverage -- something #Tehran will have been buoyed by, no doubt.

reuters.com/business/energ… Image

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More from @Charles_Lister

Charles Lister Profile picture
Feb 11
U.S. intel expects the invasion to begin next week, beginning with x2 days of airstrikes, artillery & electronic warfare, followed by a mass ground invasion seeking regime change in #Kyiv.

All per @nickschifrin, citing x3 Western & defense officials.
@nickschifrin In a new announcement, the #UK has called on all citizens to leave #Ukraine "while commercial means are still available" -- which is as clear an indication of where we're headed.

Meanwhile, ceasefire violations are *rocketing* in #Donetsk & #Luhansk:

@nickschifrin U.S. National Security Advisor @JakeSullivan46 confirms reporting that a #Russia invasion of #Ukraine could begin during the Olympics, but won't comment on specific intelligence.

"We're in the window where an invasion could begin at any time should #Putin decide to order it." Image
Read 5 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Feb 7
700 boys, 12-16yrs old, remain in an #SDF prison in NE #Syria -- held without trial since 2019 & largely hidden from monitors since.

@UNICEF images saw them "sitting barefoot on a broken concrete & dirt floor," some with blankets over their shoulders.

nytimes.com/2022/02/06/wor…
After international outcry at 700+ boys aged 10-16 being held alongside #ISIS fighters in a makeshift #SDF prison (after being judged security threats by the #SDF), the #SDF turns its ire on… @UNICEF.

Not a good look, honestly.
@UNICEF As I've said many times, the ultimate blame for the #ISIS detainee/camps crisis lies with the international community -- no doubt about it.

But the #SDF have a role to play in this dynamic & they've made decisions, implemented policies & concealed things -- and that's on them.
Read 7 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Feb 3
#ISIS's choice of NW #Idlib as a hiding point for leaders raises complex analytical Qs.

What it does not suggest, is that #Idlib's de facto governing actor, #HTS, is in some way complicit in harboring #ISIS. That's simply factually illogical, given years of open hostility.
#HTS has conducted 100+ deadly raids targeting #ISIS cells in #Idlib since mid-2017 -- & is similarly hostile to #AlQaeda too, having wiped out AQ's operational presence in #Idlib 18 months ago.

Like all non-state actors, #HTS's capacity to know everything is distinctly limited.
Just like the #SDF missed 200-300 #ISIS militants & x2 SVBIEDs crossing 12 of their own checkpoints into #Hasakeh city & al-Sina Prison, #HTS missed a man & his family living in one level of a 3-storey building near #Atmeh -- an area flooded with transitory IDPs communities.
Read 13 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Feb 2
Something big is going down in NW #Syria -- (a) U.S. helicopter gunships firing on a target in the #Jinderes area of #Afrin & (b) a possible SOF raid targeting Tauqir Sharif, a [former] #UK citizen in the Atmeh area of #Idlib.

Personally, I'd be amazed if such an operation was launched at Tauqir Sharif (Abu Hossam al-Britani) -- while his #UK citizenship was revoked, the cause for doing so never seemed more than tenuous.
The house in the #Atmeh area has reportedly been surrounded by [alleged U.S.] SOF -- a loudspeaker just ordered the building to be emptied.



My guess: it's a senior #AlQaeda (Huras al-Din) figure -- HaD seniors are known to hide in the Atmeh area.
Read 41 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Feb 2
Tensions rapidly escalating between the #SDF & #Turkey.

- Overnight #TSK strikes on #PKK in #Iraq & NE #Syria, killed combatant & civilians.

= #SDF shelling barrage killed 9 civilians & wounded 30 in al-Bab this AM.

= SNA retaliatory shelling

= #SDF accusing US of complicity.
The U.S. considers the #PKK a designated terrorist organization and *does* share intelligence & coordinate with #Turkey on countering the #PKK -- in #Syria, #Iraq & #Turkey.

As a member of the #PKK network, that places the #SDF in a very awkward place -- and @CJTFOIR too.
@CJTFOIR The #SDF's decision to shell from NE #Syria cross-border into #Turkey today -- targeting #Cizre was a serious escalation.

One #TSK soldier was killed in that attack -- and #Ankara has long determined cross-border attacks to be a thick red line.

Escalatory spiral well underway.
Read 5 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Feb 1
In providing cover for a regional energy deal via #Assad's #Syria, the #Biden admin has provided no "legal rationale" for avoiding #CaesarAct sanctions.

@SFRCdems & @HouseForeign should call the admin to testify & explain, or otherwise intervene.

fdd.org/analysis/2022/…
@SFRCdems @HouseForeign At the signing, #Lebanon's Energy Minister was caught on 'hot mic,' telling #Assad's Minister:

"I tell the US Ambassador she's my best friend; she could kill this deal.'

['Sure, sure,' in reply.]

'I say this laughing [to you] but I want to cry.'

@SFRCdems @HouseForeign What #Lebanon's Energy Minister was saying, was he's played U.S. Amb. Shea along, but in truth, his true allegiance is with #Assad's regime & its interests.

Even when faced with such bold [& embarassing] reality, some still appear totally blinkered:

Read 8 tweets

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