Thread by @SonyKapoor

Understanding the #Russia #sanctions debate in brief!

Financial and Economic Sanctions against #Iran cutting it off from global finance and trade rank 9/10

#Russian sanctions only 5/10 for now.

A lot of room to tighten the noose, of which cutting off #SWIFT is only one part

ALL #Russian banks, big and small, need blocking sanctions. This needs to include the Central Bank of Russia, mirroring the case with current sanctions that operate against #Iran, which has also been kicked off #SWIFT. Only humanitarian, medical & food import funds to be allowed!

The ONLY remaining reason the #EU countries are resisting cutting off #SWIFT and going as far as in the case of #Iran, which is what we need to do, is because we fear (know) #Putin will immediately cut off gas supplies.

Our need for #Russian gas and the #SWIFT issue inseperable

Here theatlantic.com/science/archiv… says we cannot afford to shut #Russian gas and bloomberg.com/news/articles/… says we can with additional numbers in this piece carbonbrief.org/qa-what-does-r… and available on @Sustainable2050 twitter.

But this is a moot point. #Putin may shut gas off any minute!

And this is the central point. Whether we are prepared to live without #Russian gas or not no longer matters. Given #Putin´s escalation we have to expect he will shut the flow of gas imminently & prepare an immediate & actionable Plan B. And we should impose Iran style sanctions!

By my reckoning, between #LNG storage capacity, looking at weather forecasts, possibility of ramping up non-Russian gas, and #EU wide citizen led self rationing of heating and gas use, we should be able to withstand the total shutdown of #Russian gas supplies. Let's do it then!

So in brief, #geopolitics #climatechange the #greendeal #econtwitter #fintwit #NATO #EU #Eurozone have all collided. I don't mean to trivialise what needs to be done, but it does need to be done. We ought to have an EU support instrument as very asymmetric impacts across states!

While I have been working out the details of the Iran-like sanctions and contingency planning highlighted above, my inbox has flooded with messages 1) Putin depends on this gas money 2) so he will never cut the eu off, no matter what 3) it is impossible to manage without. Answers

#Putin can do without gas exports to the EU. Russia makes much more from oil. Some gas can be diverted to China and other willing regimes. With the fx buffer, and even with bank sanctions, he can cope for months, perhaps even more than a year without. He is ready to pay any price

Now that I have answered the question of “Putin depending on gas”, let us address he will never shut it off.

Need I remind you, that #Putin launched an all-out invasion of #Ukraine, (implicitly) threatened the west with nukes if we intervened, and you think we can rely on him??

Can the #EU cope without any #RussianGas?

Let us be honest, we have no choice. We have to get into war-like mobilization & contingency planning to survive without this. It may go off anytime.

It’s 7% of EU energy, but with highly asymmetric impacts. War time rationing is here

But it’s not just about rationing. To make it work, we will need an expansion of the #EURecoveryFund, ECB stimulus, & a new redistributive mechanism to aid countries, sectors & individuals most hit. A recession is probable. Logistical and planning nightmare. But we have no choice

We have no choice because short of bombing an EU or NATO country, our dependence on #RussiaGas is the most credible weapon that #Putin has against the #EU & frankly his ONLY real source of leverage.

Do we want 2 leave ourselves open 2 this #PutinRisk that he can unleash anytime?

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