1/ How to interpret #Putin’s nuclear war threats

If #Russia's economy collapses & #Ukraine war fails, a limited nuclear strike to demonstrate resolve is not inconceivable.

I'd say very likely. Analysts & diplomats with good links to #Putin are worried.
asiatimes.com/2022/03/how-to…
2/ By alluding to a disproportionate nuclear escalation, Moscow wants to limit (or even reverse) western interference in Ukraine, in order to make the Russian war effort more sustainable. The West’s most powerful weapon at present is sanctions rather than military intervention.
3/ This carries its own risks. If such measures were really to cause the near-term “collapse of the Russian economy” & threaten the survival of the domestic order, the Russian elite might come to perceive that existential threat as making victory vital in Ukraine, at all costs.
4/ In these circumstances, a limited nuclear strike to demonstrate resolve or to break Ukrainian resistance would not be inconceivable. It is crucial, therefore, that sanctions remain geared toward ending Russia’s war effort, not to unseating the Putin regime.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Indo-Pacific News - Watching the CCP-China Threat

Indo-Pacific News - Watching the CCP-China Threat Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @IndoPac_Info

Mar 8
1/ #Ukrainian Nationalist Volunteers Committing 'ISIS-Style' War Crimes: Amnesty International

Right-wing Ukrainian ultra nationalists are committing war crimes in rebel-held territories of Eastern #Ukraine, evidence of militias beheading their victims.
newsweek.com/evidence-war-c…
2/ Armed volunteers who refer to themselves as the Aidar battalion "have been involved in widespread abuses, including abductions, unlawful detention, ill-treatment, theft, extortion, and possible executions", Amnesty said.
3/ Kiev-based Pravilnoe TV reported that it had spoken with one of the mothers who confirmed her son was a rebel, captured during fighting in Donetsk.

She said she had received her son's head in a wooden box in the post, blaming nationalist volunteers for her son's death.
Read 29 tweets
Mar 7
1/ #Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 11:

It's likely #Russian forces will renew offensive operations in the next 24-48 hours with emphasis on continuing to encircle #Kyiv, attacking west of #Kharkiv & capturing #Mariupol. Via @JominiW

#Russia #Ukraine #Donbass
#UkraineRussiaWar Image
2/ Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart.

Key take away, both #Russian & #Ukrainian forces conducted limited probes throughout NW Kyiv.

Russian forces seem to be increasing targeting of known civilian exit routes, most likely to degrade morale. #KyivNow Via @JominiW Image
3/ Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart.

Key take away, #Russian forces are bringing thermobaric MLRSs to the Chernihiv area.

The Russian are also concentrating forces to east of #Kyiv. It's possible the #Ukrainians may counterattack east of Kyiv. Via @JominiW Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 26
#Russian 2S4 Tyulpan 240mm heavy mortars and 2S7M Malka 203mm heavy artilleries on the move in Belgorod.
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
#UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaCrisis #RussianArmy
2/n
The "Z" markers denote they are heading to #Ukraine
- via @RALee85
#UkraineRussiaConflict #UkraineWar #UkraineInvasion
3/n
#Russian communication trucks South of Belgorod followed by a series of civilian vehicles that also have Z painted on the side, the white vans have no license plates.
-via @fpleitgenCNN
#UkraineWar #UkraineUnderAttack #RussiaUkraine #RussiaUkraineCrisis
Read 5 tweets
Nov 11, 2021
Assuring Assured Retaliation: Why #China is Growing its Nuclear Arsenal - An Analysis

Prof. @fravel & Prof. @Fiona_Cunning analyze the latest revelations about PRC’s nuclear modernization.

It's unclear if the goals of PRC's nuke strategy are changing..

washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…
@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 2/ The #US DoD's report assessed China's nuclear arsenal could quadruple by 2030.

PRC is building 3 missile-silo fields, which analysts expect to account for a significant increase in projected warhead stockpile.

PRC is modernizing, diversifying & expanding its nuke forces.
@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 3/ China also tested an orbital bombardment system with a hypersonic glider vehicle.

Why are these developments happening now?

*China may be expanding its options*
Read 10 tweets
Nov 9, 2021
The World Is Fed Up With China’s Belligerence

Democracies are less worried about offending a fragile Beijing.

Today, Beijing represents a frowning, finger-pointing, never-erring crank, its constant vitriol diminishes the effectiveness of Chinese anger.

theatlantic.com/international/… Image
2/ Not long ago, Beijing was economical & targeted with its outrage, only lashing out over major issues.

“Now China just picks fights out of arrogance and bullying.”

After all, if most moves are likely to anger Beijing, why hold back from any of them? Image
3/ The #USA has led the way in expanding ties with #Taiwan while grappling with an increasingly prickly China.
Similar dynamics are changing the minds of world leaders. In #Europe Beijing’s belligerence dented its image & inadvertently boosted #Taiwan 's international profile. Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 9, 2021
The #ASEAN disunity over AUKUS

The #ASEAN sees #aukus pact increases geopolitical risks in the region, as #aukus is aimed at countering rising Chinese belligerence.
The rise of partnerships in the region, which are not ASEAN-centric causes them concern.

orfonline.org/expert-speak/t…
2/ How have various #ASEAN countries reacted to #aukus ?

They've not reacted in unison. Each member expressed its own views. The divergence in opinion was quite apparent.
Brunei did not speak about it.
Indonesia expressed caution with AUKUS.
Malaysia appears astonished. Image
3/ #Vietnam is more open to #aukus “All countries strive for the same goal of peace, stability, cooperation, and development” & nuclear power can be harnessed for development.

The #Philippines is more welcoming of the #aukus though President #Duterte sounded contradictory. Image
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(